The Indian Wells tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table with percentages for all 96 players competing on how well they will do here.
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| Indian Wells logo, © BNP Paribas Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Daniil Medvedev is the favourite to win the title, as he has a 19.13% chance of winning the tournament, Carlos Alcaraz is the 2nd favourite with 14.92%, Alexander Zverev is 3rd with 9.1% and Stefanos Tsitsipas 4th with 8.73%.
- Overall, Felix Auger-Aliassime has the easiest draw here, as he is 1.23 percentage points more likely to win the title than a player of his ranking could expect. Cameron Norrie has the overall toughest draw, as he is 1.37 percentage points less likely to win than expected.
- Maximilian Marterer has the easiest round 1 match relative to his ranking, as he's 19.77 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than expected. Brandon Nakashima has a tough 1st match, as he is 28.37 percentage points less likely to get to round 2 than expected.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1874 | 100.00% | 86.54% | 74.15% | 57.30% | 39.01% | 26.45% | 14.92% |
| 2 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1580 | 62.36% | 9.70% | 5.16% | 2.02% | 0.60% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 4 | Brandon Holt | 1492 | 37.64% | 3.77% | 1.54% | 0.44% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Thiago Monteiro | 1479 | 49.33% | 16.68% | 2.24% | 0.60% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Guido Pella | 1484 | 50.67% | 17.44% | 2.39% | 0.65% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Tallon Griekspoor | 1596 | 100.00% | 65.88% | 14.53% | 6.02% | 1.89% | 0.59% | 0.13% |
| 8 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Daniel Evans | 1608 | 100.00% | 51.75% | 20.59% | 5.69% | 1.87% | 0.61% | 0.14% |
| 10 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Leandro Riedi | 1491 | 29.92% | 10.11% | 2.57% | 0.45% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Jack Draper | 1639 | 70.08% | 38.15% | 16.80% | 5.17% | 1.90% | 0.69% | 0.18% |
| 13 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1468 | 19.98% | 4.64% | 1.44% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 14 | Andy Murray | 1709 | 80.02% | 43.83% | 27.99% | 10.79% | 4.96% | 2.27% | 0.78% |
| 15 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1675 | 100.00% | 51.53% | 30.61% | 10.63% | 4.41% | 1.82% | 0.56% |
| 16 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1770 | 100.00% | 83.82% | 51.25% | 30.68% | 15.01% | 8.13% | 3.45% |
| 18 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Alexei Popyrin | 1482 | 49.42% | 7.92% | 1.99% | 0.50% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Zhang Zhizhen | 1486 | 50.58% | 8.26% | 2.12% | 0.54% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1513 | 63.80% | 14.24% | 3.46% | 0.97% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 22 | Quentin Halys | 1414 | 36.20% | 5.07% | 0.81% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Tommy Paul | 1729 | 100.00% | 80.68% | 40.37% | 22.06% | 9.65% | 4.68% | 1.74% |
| 24 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 | Francisco Cerundolo | 1573 | 100.00% | 58.93% | 17.87% | 5.24% | 1.35% | 0.38% | 0.08% |
| 26 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Gregoire Barrere | 1485 | 43.53% | 16.34% | 3.51% | 0.72% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Jack Sock | 1530 | 56.47% | 24.74% | 6.37% | 1.57% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 29 | Pedro Martinez | 1487 | 46.91% | 7.61% | 3.15% | 0.65% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Marc-Andrea Husler | 1509 | 53.09% | 9.54% | 4.24% | 0.96% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1772 | 100.00% | 82.84% | 64.85% | 35.98% | 17.71% | 9.66% | 4.13% |
| 32 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 33 | Taylor Fritz | 1782 | 100.00% | 81.48% | 64.21% | 40.03% | 23.12% | 11.50% | 5.07% |
| 34 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Ben Shelton | 1535 | 53.08% | 10.29% | 4.88% | 1.44% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 36 | Fabio Fognini | 1513 | 46.92% | 8.23% | 3.65% | 0.99% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 37 | Mikael Ymer | 1581 | 61.24% | 33.19% | 10.02% | 3.52% | 1.10% | 0.27% | 0.06% |
| 38 | Rinky Hijikata | 1501 | 38.76% | 16.60% | 3.67% | 0.95% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 39 | Sebastian Baez | 1552 | 100.00% | 50.21% | 13.57% | 4.28% | 1.19% | 0.26% | 0.05% |
| 40 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 41 | Borna Coric | 1688 | 100.00% | 70.24% | 33.65% | 16.23% | 7.28% | 2.71% | 0.87% |
| 42 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Alex Molcan | 1554 | 55.28% | 17.54% | 5.38% | 1.71% | 0.48% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 44 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1518 | 44.72% | 12.22% | 3.24% | 0.90% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 45 | J. J. Wolf | 1589 | 53.03% | 15.19% | 6.45% | 2.31% | 0.75% | 0.19% | 0.04% |
| 46 | Marton Fucsovics | 1568 | 46.97% | 12.32% | 4.88% | 1.63% | 0.49% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 47 | Alex De Minaur | 1748 | 100.00% | 72.49% | 46.39% | 26.00% | 13.80% | 6.22% | 2.46% |
| 48 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 49 | Jannik Sinner | 1806 | 100.00% | 77.80% | 56.95% | 38.14% | 23.50% | 12.44% | 5.88% |
| 50 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Borna Gojo | 1473 | 29.39% | 3.77% | 1.10% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 52 | Richard Gasquet | 1625 | 70.61% | 18.43% | 9.10% | 3.88% | 1.45% | 0.43% | 0.11% |
| 53 | Dominic Thiem | 1674 | 64.10% | 37.55% | 14.31% | 7.05% | 3.08% | 1.09% | 0.33% |
| 54 | Adrian Mannarino | 1573 | 35.90% | 15.87% | 4.19% | 1.49% | 0.46% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 55 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1613 | 100.00% | 46.57% | 14.35% | 5.88% | 2.11% | 0.60% | 0.14% |
| 56 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 57 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1631 | 100.00% | 55.05% | 21.94% | 8.09% | 3.08% | 0.94% | 0.24% |
| 58 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Stan Wawrinka | 1637 | 68.95% | 35.07% | 14.26% | 5.37% | 2.09% | 0.65% | 0.17% |
| 60 | Aleksandar Vukic | 1498 | 31.05% | 9.87% | 2.37% | 0.53% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1626 | 54.78% | 18.25% | 9.27% | 3.36% | 1.26% | 0.37% | 0.09% |
| 62 | Filip Krajinovic | 1592 | 45.22% | 13.21% | 6.08% | 1.96% | 0.65% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 63 | Holger Rune | 1746 | 100.00% | 68.54% | 46.07% | 24.00% | 12.87% | 5.78% | 2.27% |
| 64 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 65 | Daniil Medvedev | 1931 | 100.00% | 83.88% | 72.12% | 49.14% | 38.86% | 27.49% | 19.13% |
| 66 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 67 | John Isner | 1666 | 58.05% | 10.40% | 5.99% | 2.07% | 0.97% | 0.35% | 0.12% |
| 68 | Brandon Nakashima | 1610 | 41.95% | 5.72% | 2.84% | 0.80% | 0.31% | 0.09% | 0.03% |
| 69 | Ilya Ivashka | 1597 | 61.14% | 26.88% | 4.75% | 1.28% | 0.48% | 0.13% | 0.04% |
| 70 | Roman Safiullin | 1518 | 38.86% | 12.93% | 1.60% | 0.31% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1639 | 100.00% | 60.19% | 12.71% | 4.00% | 1.72% | 0.56% | 0.18% |
| 72 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 73 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1666 | 100.00% | 66.74% | 20.30% | 5.74% | 2.68% | 0.96% | 0.33% |
| 74 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1569 | 58.70% | 21.39% | 4.51% | 0.88% | 0.30% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 76 | Constant Lestienne | 1508 | 41.30% | 11.87% | 1.94% | 0.29% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Pedro Cachin | 1457 | 45.03% | 4.17% | 1.16% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 78 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1491 | 54.97% | 6.09% | 1.95% | 0.27% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Alexander Zverev | 1853 | 100.00% | 89.74% | 70.14% | 35.06% | 24.91% | 15.21% | 9.10% |
| 80 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 81 | Karen Khachanov | 1732 | 100.00% | 73.89% | 52.66% | 29.76% | 9.97% | 4.43% | 1.92% |
| 82 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Laslo Djere | 1573 | 57.76% | 16.53% | 8.28% | 2.94% | 0.53% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 84 | Oscar Otte | 1518 | 42.24% | 9.58% | 4.07% | 1.18% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 85 | Wu Yibing | 1546 | 57.09% | 24.03% | 7.60% | 2.45% | 0.39% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 86 | Jaume Munar | 1496 | 42.91% | 15.15% | 3.95% | 1.05% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 87 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1601 | 100.00% | 60.82% | 23.43% | 9.15% | 1.85% | 0.52% | 0.14% |
| 88 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 89 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1629 | 100.00% | 62.75% | 24.51% | 11.35% | 2.58% | 0.80% | 0.24% |
| 90 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1492 | 39.47% | 12.35% | 2.90% | 0.84% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 92 | Cristian Garin | 1567 | 60.53% | 24.90% | 7.82% | 2.98% | 0.52% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 93 | Diego Schwartzman | 1567 | 56.66% | 14.24% | 6.52% | 2.48% | 0.43% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 94 | Federico Coria | 1521 | 43.34% | 8.86% | 3.49% | 1.13% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 95 | Casper Ruud | 1757 | 100.00% | 76.91% | 54.76% | 34.70% | 12.67% | 6.07% | 2.83% |
| 96 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 97 | Andrey Rublev | 1796 | 100.00% | 79.47% | 57.29% | 32.00% | 17.92% | 8.16% | 4.25% |
| 98 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Jiri Lehecka | 1566 | 51.46% | 10.80% | 4.50% | 1.17% | 0.32% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 100 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1555 | 48.54% | 9.73% | 3.92% | 0.98% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 101 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 1526 | 49.85% | 15.23% | 3.52% | 0.78% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 102 | Ugo Humbert | 1527 | 50.15% | 15.38% | 3.57% | 0.79% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 103 | Denis Shapovalov | 1669 | 100.00% | 69.39% | 27.19% | 10.45% | 4.10% | 1.23% | 0.43% |
| 104 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 105 | Matteo Berrettini | 1773 | 100.00% | 83.48% | 46.25% | 26.17% | 13.87% | 5.92% | 2.90% |
| 106 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Taro Daniel | 1493 | 50.33% | 8.36% | 1.78% | 0.40% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 108 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1491 | 49.67% | 8.16% | 1.72% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 109 | Alexander Bublik | 1613 | 70.32% | 19.71% | 6.85% | 2.43% | 0.79% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 110 | Wu Tung-Lin | 1463 | 29.68% | 4.19% | 0.82% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Cameron Norrie | 1777 | 100.00% | 76.10% | 42.58% | 24.27% | 12.97% | 5.59% | 2.76% |
| 112 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 113 | Frances Tiafoe | 1702 | 100.00% | 69.64% | 39.42% | 16.35% | 6.93% | 2.34% | 0.92% |
| 114 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Marcos Giron | 1585 | 60.13% | 20.30% | 8.22% | 2.29% | 0.64% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 116 | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 1513 | 39.87% | 10.07% | 3.16% | 0.67% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Jason Kubler | 1526 | 43.83% | 11.96% | 3.86% | 0.86% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 118 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1569 | 56.17% | 18.24% | 6.88% | 1.81% | 0.47% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 119 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1697 | 100.00% | 69.80% | 38.46% | 15.71% | 6.55% | 2.18% | 0.84% |
| 120 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 121 | Maxime Cressy | 1603 | 100.00% | 67.29% | 16.47% | 6.73% | 2.00% | 0.47% | 0.13% |
| 122 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1503 | 59.28% | 21.36% | 3.37% | 0.95% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 124 | Maximilian Marterer | 1438 | 40.72% | 11.36% | 1.31% | 0.28% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 125 | Jordan Thompson | 1475 | 20.95% | 2.19% | 0.83% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Gael Monfils | 1706 | 79.05% | 24.18% | 16.69% | 9.21% | 3.96% | 1.36% | 0.54% |
| 127 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1848 | 100.00% | 73.62% | 61.32% | 44.94% | 28.11% | 14.75% | 8.73% |
| 128 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
