The Indian Wells tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a look at how the 2nd week of the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table with percentages for all 16 players remaining.
 |
| Indian Wells logo, © BNP Paribas Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Of the 4 favourites for the title, 3 of them are still in. Ons Jabeur lost in round 3 to Marketa Vondrousova.
- The players with the easiest and hardest overall draws, Daria Kasatkina and Danielle Collins, are both out. Kasatkina has the easiest overall draw before losing to Varvara Gracheva, while Collins has the hardest overall draw and lost in round 1 to Dalma Galfi. The player with the easiest round 1 match, Katie Swan, lost her match against Cristina Bucsa; and the player with the hardest round 1 match, Yulia Putintseva, lost her match to Karolina Muchova.
- Iga Swiatek is still the favourite to win the title, as she has a 39.73% chance of winning the tournament, Aryna Sabalenka is 2nd favourite with 10.03%, Jessica Pegula 3rd with 9.33% and Coco Gauff 4th with 8.06%.
- Overall, Elena Rybakina now has the easiest draw here, as she is 1.63 percentage points more likely to take the title than a player of her ranking would expect. On the other hand, Barbora Krejcikova now has the toughest overall draw, as she is 2.62 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than what her ranking would suggest. Rybakina and Krejcikova also have the easiest and toughest round 4 matches, they are 20.22 and 27.79 percentage points more/less likely to win their next match than expected.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1964 | 88.41% | 70.30% | 55.32% | 39.73% |
| 2 | Emma Raducanu | 1611 | 11.59% | 4.09% | 1.37% | 0.35% |
| 3 | Sorana Cirstea | 1608 | 28.78% | 4.55% | 1.50% | 0.38% |
| 4 | Caroline Garcia | 1765 | 71.22% | 21.05% | 11.47% | 5.18% |
| 5 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1729 | 53.13% | 26.75% | 7.94% | 3.19% |
| 6 | Karolina Muchova | 1708 | 46.87% | 22.21% | 6.08% | 2.27% |
| 7 | Elena Rybakina | 1773 | 76.80% | 44.28% | 15.29% | 7.07% |
| 8 | Varvara Gracheva | 1565 | 23.20% | 6.77% | 1.03% | 0.22% |
| 9 | Maria Sakkari | 1755 | 55.33% | 24.47% | 10.43% | 3.77% |
| 10 | Karolina Pliskova | 1718 | 44.67% | 17.46% | 6.57% | 2.09% |
| 11 | Petra Kvitova | 1743 | 37.85% | 19.14% | 7.82% | 2.71% |
| 12 | Jessica Pegula | 1829 | 62.15% | 38.93% | 20.61% | 9.33% |
| 13 | Coco Gauff | 1800 | 78.27% | 36.19% | 19.37% | 8.06% |
| 14 | Rebecca Peterson | 1577 | 21.73% | 4.20% | 1.03% | 0.19% |
| 15 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1800 | 43.42% | 24.40% | 13.07% | 5.44% |
| 16 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1846 | 56.58% | 35.21% | 21.11% | 10.03% |
