The Miami tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a look at how the 2nd week of the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table with percentages for all 16 players remaining.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Iga Swiatek withdrew before playing a match.
- Marketa Vondrousova, the player with the toughest overall draw at the start of the tournament, is still in the tournament. The player with the easiest overall draw, Liudmila Samsonova, lost in round 3 to Zheng Qinwen.
- Tereza Martincova had the easiest 1st round draw, and won her round 1 match against Tamara Korpatch before losing in round 2. Jil Teichmann had the toughest 1st round draw and lost as expected to Karolina Muchova.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like.
- Aryna Sabaleka is now the favourite to win the title with an 18.44% chance, Jessica Pegula is the 2nd favourite at 18.43%, Elena Rybakina is 3rd at 16.64%, and Petra Kvitova 4th most likely with 8.83%.
- The easiest draw relative to her ranking has gone to Jelena Ostapenko. She is 1.24 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than her ranking suggests. Ostapenko also has the easiest next match compared to her ranking, as she is 24.93 percentage points more likely to win her round 4 match than expected.
- The player with the toughest overall draw is Bianca Andreescu, as she's 0.95 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- Barbora Krejcikova has the toughest 4th round match, as she's 29.7 percentage points less likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of her ranking would expect.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martina Trevisan | 1512 | 23.51% | 4.34% | 0.94% | 0.17% |
| 2 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1717 | 76.49% | 31.65% | 14.49% | 5.99% |
| 3 | Elena Rybakina | 1824 | 70.72% | 49.38% | 29.68% | 16.64% |
| 4 | Elise Mertens | 1670 | 29.28% | 14.63% | 5.80% | 2.05% |
| 5 | Jessica Pegula | 1826 | 76.18% | 54.90% | 32.71% | 18.43% |
| 6 | Magda Linette | 1624 | 23.82% | 10.64% | 3.48% | 1.03% |
| 7 | Zheng Qinwen | 1666 | 51.56% | 18.10% | 6.89% | 2.40% |
| 8 | Anastasia Potapova | 1656 | 48.44% | 16.37% | 6.00% | 2.01% |
| 9 | Bianca Andreescu | 1723 | 54.59% | 27.95% | 10.91% | 4.75% |
| 10 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1691 | 45.41% | 21.25% | 7.42% | 2.91% |
| 11 | Petra Kvitova | 1759 | 72.37% | 41.44% | 18.20% | 8.83% |
| 12 | Varvara Gracheva | 1592 | 27.63% | 9.36% | 2.21% | 0.60% |
| 13 | Sorana Cirstea | 1652 | 36.98% | 9.33% | 3.78% | 1.30% |
| 14 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1744 | 63.02% | 22.95% | 12.28% | 5.70% |
| 15 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1804 | 41.02% | 25.87% | 15.99% | 8.75% |
| 16 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1867 | 58.98% | 41.85% | 29.22% | 18.44% |
