The Miami tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table for percentages for all 96 players competing and how they will do.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Iga Swiatek is the favourite to win the title, as she has a 30.83% chance of winning the tournament, Aryna Sabalenka is the 2nd favourite with 10.68%, Jessica Pegula 3rd with 6.62% and Elena Rybakina 4th with 5.97%
- Liudmila Samsonova has the easiest overall draw, as she is 0.49 percentage points more likely to win the title than expected. Marketa Vondrousova has the toughest overall draw, as she is 0.66 percentage points less likely than expected to win the title.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Jil Teichmann, as she's 29.75 percentage points less like to make it to round 2 than a player with her ELO rating would expect. Tereza Martincova has the easiest 1st round draw, she is 18.46 percentage points more likely to progress to round 2 than her ranking would suggest.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1954 | 100.00% | 89.86% | 84.08% | 70.37% | 54.90% | 41.89% | 30.83% |
| 2 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Katerina Siniakova | 1602 | 60.85% | 7.08% | 4.66% | 1.93% | 0.66% | 0.21% | 0.06% |
| 4 | Claire Liu | 1525 | 39.15% | 3.06% | 1.69% | 0.54% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 5 | Nao Hibino | 1426 | 38.29% | 15.52% | 1.10% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Danka Kovinic | 1508 | 61.71% | 32.32% | 3.39% | 1.01% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Martina Trevisan | 1492 | 100.00% | 52.16% | 5.07% | 1.41% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 8 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1703 | 100.00% | 71.94% | 42.69% | 11.81% | 5.59% | 2.49% | 1.01% |
| 10 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Jasmine Paolini | 1572 | 63.83% | 20.44% | 8.51% | 1.48% | 0.45% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 12 | Mirjam Bjorklund | 1473 | 36.17% | 7.62% | 2.24% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Tamara Korpatsch | 1421 | 36.14% | 6.70% | 1.42% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 14 | Tereza Martincova | 1520 | 63.86% | 18.33% | 5.80% | 0.82% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 15 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1678 | 100.00% | 74.97% | 39.34% | 10.01% | 4.41% | 1.81% | 0.68% |
| 16 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | Elena Rybakina | 1813 | 100.00% | 81.47% | 58.36% | 42.14% | 17.96% | 10.68% | 5.97% |
| 18 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1585 | 62.03% | 13.16% | 5.51% | 2.31% | 0.45% | 0.13% | 0.04% |
| 20 | Victoria Jiminez Kasintseva | 1499 | 37.97% | 5.37% | 1.67% | 0.52% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Mayar Sherif | 1476 | 42.25% | 9.56% | 1.66% | 0.47% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Laura Siegemund | 1531 | 57.75% | 16.49% | 3.61% | 1.26% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 23 | Paula Badosa | 1690 | 100.00% | 73.96% | 29.19% | 16.51% | 4.79% | 2.05% | 0.80% |
| 24 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 | Petra Martic | 1630 | 100.00% | 67.65% | 30.53% | 10.68% | 2.50% | 0.87% | 0.27% |
| 26 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Brenda Fruhvirtova | 1480 | 44.48% | 13.20% | 3.44% | 0.67% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Wang Xiyu | 1519 | 55.52% | 19.15% | 5.84% | 1.33% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 29 | Elise Mertens | 1643 | 64.87% | 27.64% | 15.86% | 5.79% | 1.42% | 0.52% | 0.17% |
| 30 | Alycia Parks | 1536 | 35.13% | 10.07% | 4.29% | 1.05% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Daria Kasatkina | 1695 | 100.00% | 62.29% | 40.04% | 17.28% | 5.09% | 2.21% | 0.87% |
| 32 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 33 | Jessica Pegula | 1816 | 100.00% | 82.97% | 58.98% | 40.41% | 25.97% | 11.74% | 6.62% |
| 34 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Katherine Sebov | 1484 | 37.78% | 4.86% | 1.36% | 0.35% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Linda Fruhvirtova | 1571 | 62.22% | 12.17% | 4.69% | 1.69% | 0.54% | 0.10% | 0.03% |
| 37 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1446 | 31.65% | 6.07% | 0.91% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 38 | Lauren Davis | 1579 | 68.35% | 23.16% | 6.07% | 2.26% | 0.75% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 39 | Danielle Collins | 1696 | 100.00% | 70.76% | 27.99% | 14.78% | 7.12% | 2.20% | 0.87% |
| 40 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 41 | Magda Linette | 1604 | 100.00% | 60.25% | 21.35% | 6.66% | 2.40% | 0.52% | 0.15% |
| 42 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Bernada Pera | 1572 | 68.78% | 31.20% | 9.80% | 2.70% | 0.87% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 44 | Evgeniya Rodina | 1435 | 31.22% | 8.55% | 1.49% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Camila Giorgi | 1648 | 56.48% | 20.14% | 11.98% | 4.37% | 1.82% | 0.47% | 0.16% |
| 46 | Kaia Kanepi | 1603 | 43.52% | 13.02% | 6.93% | 2.15% | 0.77% | 0.17% | 0.05% |
| 47 | Victoria Azarenka | 1751 | 100.00% | 66.84% | 48.44% | 24.19% | 13.46% | 5.00% | 2.36% |
| 48 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 49 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1707 | 100.00% | 76.63% | 46.93% | 22.65% | 10.33% | 3.31% | 1.37% |
| 50 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Viktorija Golubic | 1520 | 56.73% | 14.44% | 5.11% | 1.30% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 52 | Hailey Baptiste | 1473 | 43.27% | 8.94% | 2.64% | 0.55% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Alex Eala | 1479 | 29.87% | 8.29% | 2.25% | 0.48% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 54 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1627 | 70.13% | 33.26% | 15.10% | 5.71% | 2.01% | 0.48% | 0.15% |
| 55 | Zheng Qinwen | 1645 | 100.00% | 58.46% | 27.96% | 11.22% | 4.21% | 1.08% | 0.36% |
| 56 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 57 | Anastasia Potapova | 1631 | 100.00% | 54.88% | 18.80% | 8.71% | 3.11% | 0.76% | 0.24% |
| 58 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Marta Kostyuk | 1634 | 65.12% | 32.83% | 11.36% | 5.31% | 1.92% | 0.47% | 0.15% |
| 60 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 1525 | 34.88% | 12.29% | 2.80% | 0.91% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 61 | Yulia Putintseva | 1608 | 65.54% | 16.61% | 8.04% | 3.47% | 1.14% | 0.25% | 0.07% |
| 62 | Rebecca Marino | 1496 | 34.46% | 5.22% | 1.73% | 0.50% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 63 | Coco Gauff | 1796 | 100.00% | 78.16% | 57.26% | 39.20% | 22.61% | 9.63% | 5.16% |
| 64 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 65 | Maria Sakkari | 1766 | 100.00% | 64.18% | 46.60% | 26.35% | 14.48% | 7.19% | 2.93% |
| 66 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Bianca Andreescu | 1697 | 62.41% | 25.02% | 16.03% | 7.55% | 3.43% | 1.38% | 0.44% |
| 68 | Emma Raducanu | 1609 | 37.59% | 10.80% | 5.61% | 1.99% | 0.68% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 69 | Sofia Kenin | 1586 | 73.60% | 33.58% | 10.25% | 3.36% | 1.05% | 0.28% | 0.06% |
| 70 | Storm Hunter | 1408 | 26.40% | 6.11% | 0.84% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1617 | 100.00% | 60.31% | 20.67% | 7.56% | 2.64% | 0.80% | 0.19% |
| 72 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 73 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1672 | 100.00% | 74.46% | 29.96% | 14.06% | 5.92% | 2.19% | 0.65% |
| 74 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Anna Bondar | 1486 | 49.78% | 12.67% | 2.46% | 0.59% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Taylor Townsend | 1487 | 50.22% | 12.87% | 2.52% | 0.61% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1597 | 45.12% | 11.19% | 5.14% | 1.90% | 0.62% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 78 | Leylah Fernandez | 1631 | 54.88% | 15.71% | 7.95% | 3.28% | 1.21% | 0.38% | 0.10% |
| 79 | Belinda Bencic | 1790 | 100.00% | 73.10% | 51.96% | 32.61% | 18.94% | 10.01% | 4.36% |
| 80 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 81 | Petra Kvitova | 1745 | 100.00% | 75.40% | 45.21% | 24.28% | 12.84% | 6.01% | 2.28% |
| 82 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Lucia Bronzetti | 1464 | 33.09% | 5.47% | 1.28% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 84 | Linda Noskova | 1586 | 66.91% | 19.13% | 7.24% | 2.44% | 0.78% | 0.21% | 0.04% |
| 85 | Amanda Anisimova | 1692 | 78.18% | 40.74% | 19.84% | 9.29% | 4.24% | 1.68% | 0.53% |
| 86 | Madison Brengle | 1471 | 21.82% | 5.08% | 1.13% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 87 | Donna Vekic | 1678 | 100.00% | 54.18% | 25.31% | 11.38% | 4.96% | 1.87% | 0.56% |
| 88 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 89 | Zhang Shuai | 1591 | 100.00% | 66.49% | 19.74% | 6.94% | 2.25% | 0.62% | 0.13% |
| 90 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Erika Andreeva | 1490 | 55.87% | 20.01% | 3.96% | 0.93% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 92 | Ashlyn Krueger | 1449 | 44.13% | 13.50% | 2.24% | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 93 | Varvara Gracheva | 1560 | 56.64% | 11.55% | 5.91% | 1.85% | 0.53% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 94 | Maryna Zanevska | 1514 | 43.36% | 7.11% | 3.17% | 0.82% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 95 | Ons Jabeur | 1797 | 100.00% | 81.34% | 64.98% | 41.10% | 24.61% | 13.25% | 5.90% |
| 96 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 97 | Caroline Garcia | 1751 | 100.00% | 72.58% | 47.65% | 26.46% | 12.12% | 6.20% | 2.40% |
| 98 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Fernanda Contreras Gomez | 1477 | 30.57% | 5.24% | 1.55% | 0.33% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 100 | Sorana Cirstea | 1620 | 69.43% | 22.19% | 10.68% | 3.99% | 1.18% | 0.39% | 0.09% |
| 101 | Jil Teichmann | 1588 | 33.14% | 18.41% | 6.25% | 2.08% | 0.54% | 0.16% | 0.03% |
| 102 | Karolina Muchova | 1710 | 66.86% | 47.86% | 23.97% | 11.93% | 4.82% | 2.19% | 0.74% |
| 103 | Zhu Lin | 1549 | 100.00% | 33.73% | 9.90% | 2.84% | 0.63% | 0.16% | 0.03% |
| 104 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 105 | Karolina Pliskova | 1709 | 100.00% | 74.57% | 35.51% | 18.50% | 7.46% | 3.39% | 1.14% |
| 106 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Wang Xinyu | 1510 | 46.73% | 11.27% | 2.57% | 0.69% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 108 | Anna-Lena Friedsam | 1533 | 53.27% | 14.17% | 3.56% | 1.04% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 109 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1719 | 73.79% | 33.86% | 19.47% | 10.40% | 4.33% | 2.02% | 0.70% |
| 110 | Tatjana Maria | 1539 | 26.21% | 6.07% | 2.04% | 0.61% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 111 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1747 | 100.00% | 60.08% | 36.84% | 21.12% | 9.58% | 4.85% | 1.86% |
| 112 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 113 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1791 | 100.00% | 76.29% | 52.22% | 27.12% | 16.45% | 9.33% | 4.09% |
| 114 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1625 | 68.85% | 19.10% | 8.87% | 2.81% | 1.06% | 0.36% | 0.09% |
| 116 | Dalma Galfi | 1487 | 31.15% | 4.61% | 1.33% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Robin Montgomery | 1458 | 37.11% | 7.53% | 1.29% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Ana Bogdan | 1549 | 62.89% | 18.96% | 4.81% | 1.15% | 0.33% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 119 | Madison Keys | 1695 | 100.00% | 73.51% | 31.48% | 12.52% | 5.92% | 2.57% | 0.82% |
| 120 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 121 | Marie Bouzkova | 1621 | 100.00% | 65.74% | 17.24% | 6.16% | 2.29% | 0.77% | 0.19% |
| 122 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Anna Blinkova | 1490 | 45.40% | 14.53% | 2.18% | 0.47% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Jule Niemeier | 1522 | 54.60% | 19.73% | 3.42% | 0.84% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 125 | Shelby Rogers | 1637 | 57.93% | 12.66% | 7.30% | 2.76% | 1.09% | 0.39% | 0.10% |
| 126 | Sloane Stephens | 1582 | 42.07% | 7.10% | 3.54% | 1.10% | 0.35% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 127 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1859 | 100.00% | 80.24% | 66.32% | 44.62% | 30.92% | 20.30% | 10.68% |
| 128 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
