The Miami tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a look at how the 2nd week of the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table with percentages for all 16 players remaining.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Alexander Zverev lost in round 2 to Taro Daniel.
- Andrey Rublev, the player with the toughest overall draw at the start of the tournament, is still in the tournament. The player with the easiest overall draw, Felix Auger-Aliassime, lost in round 3 to Francisco Cerundolo.
- Denis Kudla had the easiest 1st round draw, but he ended up losing that match to Christopher Eubanks. Dusan Lajovic had the toughest 1st round draw, but he won his match against Andy Murray, before losing in round 3 to Carlos Alcaraz.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like.
- Daniil Medvedev is still the favourite to win the title with a 39.92% chance, Carlos Alcaraz is the 2nd favourite at 18.75%, Stefanos Tsitsipas is 3rd at 11.45%, and Jannik Sinner 4th most likely with 8.79%.
- The easiest draw relative to his ranking has gone to Karen Khachanov. He is 0.75 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than his ranking suggests.
- Adrian Mannarino has the easiest next match compared to his ranking, as he is 26.15 percentage points more likely to win his round 4 match than expected.
- The player with the toughest overall draw is Tommy Paul, as he's 0.44 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected. Paul also has the toughest 4th round match, as he's 23.06 percentage points less likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of his ranking would expect.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1915 | 72.40% | 49.86% | 34.15% | 18.75% |
| 2 | Tommy Paul | 1748 | 27.60% | 12.65% | 5.87% | 1.96% |
| 3 | Taylor Fritz | 1796 | 56.24% | 22.46% | 11.90% | 4.67% |
| 4 | Holger Rune | 1752 | 43.76% | 15.03% | 7.07% | 2.40% |
| 5 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1648 | 54.94% | 14.95% | 3.80% | 0.87% |
| 6 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1614 | 45.06% | 10.57% | 2.32% | 0.46% |
| 7 | Jannik Sinner | 1833 | 54.17% | 41.13% | 19.99% | 8.79% |
| 8 | Andrey Rublev | 1804 | 45.83% | 33.35% | 14.89% | 5.99% |
| 9 | Adrian Mannarino | 1621 | 71.21% | 11.98% | 3.90% | 0.94% |
| 10 | Christopher Eubanks | 1464 | 28.79% | 2.45% | 0.42% | 0.05% |
| 11 | Quentin Halys | 1452 | 5.57% | 1.86% | 0.30% | 0.03% |
| 12 | Daniil Medvedev | 1944 | 94.43% | 83.71% | 61.25% | 39.92% |
| 13 | Francisco Cerundolo | 1601 | 50.66% | 12.28% | 2.31% | 0.51% |
| 14 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1596 | 49.34% | 11.72% | 2.17% | 0.47% |
| 15 | Karen Khachanov | 1733 | 35.08% | 24.02% | 7.35% | 2.72% |
| 16 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1840 | 64.92% | 51.97% | 22.30% | 11.45% |
