The Indian Wells tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table with percentages for all 96 players competing on how well they will do here.
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| Indian Wells logo, © BNP Paribas Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Iga Swiatek is the favourite to win the title, as she has a 31.56% chance of winning the tournament, Aryna Sabalenka is the 2nd favourite with 8.22%, Jessica Pegula 3rd with 7.09% and Ons Jabeur 4th with 6.11%.
- Overall, Daria Kasatkina has the easiest draw here, as she is 0.48 percentage points more likely to take the title than a player of her ranking would expect. On the other hand, Danielle Collins has the toughest overall draw, as she is 0.52 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than what her ranking would suggest.
- Katie Swan has the easiest round 1 match relative to her ranking, as she's 19.63 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than expected. Yulia Putintseva has a tough 1st match, as she is 30.59 percentage points less likely to get to round 2 than expected.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1959 | 100.00% | 92.10% | 78.09% | 67.67% | 54.71% | 42.69% | 31.56% |
| 2 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Claire Liu | 1518 | 46.44% | 3.41% | 1.12% | 0.39% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1543 | 53.56% | 4.49% | 1.61% | 0.62% | 0.18% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 5 | Rebeka Masarova | 1502 | 50.39% | 12.46% | 1.22% | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Peyton Stearns | 1499 | 49.61% | 12.13% | 1.17% | 0.38% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Bianca Andreescu | 1695 | 100.00% | 75.41% | 16.78% | 9.95% | 4.86% | 2.18% | 0.86% |
| 8 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Magda Linette | 1615 | 100.00% | 58.64% | 26.70% | 5.13% | 1.94% | 0.67% | 0.19% |
| 10 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Danka Kovinic | 1517 | 41.07% | 14.89% | 4.84% | 0.61% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 12 | Emma Raducanu | 1579 | 58.93% | 26.48% | 10.77% | 1.79% | 0.59% | 0.18% | 0.05% |
| 13 | Katerina Siniakova | 1602 | 60.19% | 23.19% | 11.95% | 2.18% | 0.79% | 0.26% | 0.07% |
| 14 | Jule Niemeier | 1530 | 39.81% | 11.67% | 4.83% | 0.65% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 15 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1683 | 100.00% | 65.14% | 40.91% | 10.24% | 4.82% | 2.08% | 0.79% |
| 16 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1721 | 100.00% | 75.08% | 43.27% | 23.10% | 7.63% | 3.70% | 1.58% |
| 18 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Bernada Pera | 1560 | 62.41% | 17.69% | 6.33% | 2.03% | 0.37% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 20 | Lucia Bronzetti | 1471 | 37.59% | 7.23% | 1.84% | 0.41% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Sorana Cirstea | 1576 | 56.81% | 18.08% | 6.64% | 2.26% | 0.44% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 22 | Kimberly Birrell | 1529 | 43.19% | 11.31% | 3.50% | 0.99% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 23 | Madison Keys | 1709 | 100.00% | 70.61% | 38.42% | 19.86% | 6.31% | 2.95% | 1.21% |
| 24 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 | Leylah Fernandez | 1631 | 100.00% | 66.01% | 23.72% | 10.07% | 2.44% | 0.89% | 0.28% |
| 26 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Emma Navarro | 1475 | 40.44% | 11.69% | 2.20% | 0.52% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Caty McNally | 1542 | 59.56% | 22.30% | 5.65% | 1.75% | 0.30% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 29 | Tamara Korpatsch | 1421 | 15.82% | 2.02% | 0.56% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Danielle Collins | 1711 | 84.18% | 36.85% | 24.31% | 13.01% | 4.17% | 1.97% | 0.82% |
| 31 | Caroline Garcia | 1755 | 100.00% | 61.12% | 43.55% | 25.90% | 9.53% | 5.07% | 2.41% |
| 32 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 33 | Ons Jabeur | 1807 | 100.00% | 80.73% | 56.69% | 37.39% | 24.55% | 11.18% | 6.11% |
| 34 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Maryna Zanevska | 1525 | 42.28% | 6.99% | 2.28% | 0.69% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 36 | Lauren Davis | 1579 | 57.72% | 12.28% | 4.87% | 1.78% | 0.63% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 37 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1704 | 76.31% | 46.36% | 19.56% | 10.33% | 5.36% | 1.79% | 0.73% |
| 38 | Rebecca Marino | 1501 | 23.69% | 7.69% | 1.53% | 0.42% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Marie Bouzkova | 1628 | 100.00% | 45.96% | 15.07% | 6.45% | 2.67% | 0.68% | 0.21% |
| 40 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 41 | Martina Trevisan | 1487 | 100.00% | 46.23% | 9.51% | 1.93% | 0.47% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 42 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Laura Siegemund | 1543 | 60.54% | 35.09% | 9.19% | 2.36% | 0.72% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 44 | Madison Brengle | 1468 | 39.46% | 18.68% | 3.53% | 0.66% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Yulia Putintseva | 1616 | 40.53% | 12.19% | 8.00% | 2.72% | 1.08% | 0.26% | 0.08% |
| 46 | Karolina Muchova | 1683 | 59.47% | 23.02% | 16.95% | 7.19% | 3.52% | 1.09% | 0.41% |
| 47 | Victoria Azarenka | 1763 | 100.00% | 64.78% | 52.82% | 28.07% | 16.81% | 6.75% | 3.28% |
| 48 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 49 | Elena Rybakina | 1759 | 100.00% | 72.93% | 47.31% | 30.84% | 16.30% | 6.48% | 3.11% |
| 50 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Sloane Stephens | 1592 | 51.52% | 14.25% | 6.04% | 2.56% | 0.80% | 0.18% | 0.05% |
| 52 | Sofia Kenin | 1582 | 48.48% | 12.82% | 5.26% | 2.16% | 0.64% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 53 | Nuria Parrizas Diaz | 1492 | 43.55% | 10.40% | 2.37% | 0.70% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 54 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 1537 | 56.45% | 16.31% | 4.48% | 1.57% | 0.39% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 55 | Paula Badosa | 1693 | 100.00% | 73.29% | 34.55% | 19.49% | 8.55% | 2.75% | 1.07% |
| 56 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 57 | Petra Martic | 1643 | 100.00% | 67.47% | 32.06% | 13.46% | 5.02% | 1.35% | 0.44% |
| 58 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Ysaline Bonaventure | 1502 | 46.22% | 14.21% | 4.15% | 1.04% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 60 | Varvara Gracheva | 1528 | 53.78% | 18.32% | 5.93% | 1.65% | 0.40% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 61 | Tatjana Maria | 1533 | 42.81% | 11.70% | 4.73% | 1.34% | 0.33% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 62 | Jasmine Paolini | 1584 | 57.19% | 19.13% | 9.06% | 3.10% | 0.93% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 63 | Daria Kasatkina | 1703 | 100.00% | 69.17% | 44.07% | 22.11% | 10.00% | 3.32% | 1.34% |
| 64 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 65 | Maria Sakkari | 1741 | 100.00% | 69.34% | 48.95% | 26.95% | 13.71% | 6.10% | 2.38% |
| 66 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Katie Volynets | 1474 | 27.91% | 4.94% | 1.70% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 68 | Shelby Rogers | 1639 | 72.09% | 25.73% | 14.74% | 6.05% | 2.25% | 0.70% | 0.19% |
| 69 | Mayar Sherif | 1484 | 37.55% | 12.03% | 2.75% | 0.63% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 70 | Linda Fruhvirtova | 1572 | 62.45% | 27.45% | 8.94% | 2.90% | 0.85% | 0.20% | 0.04% |
| 71 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1614 | 100.00% | 60.51% | 22.92% | 8.66% | 2.95% | 0.84% | 0.21% |
| 72 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 73 | Karolina Pliskova | 1700 | 100.00% | 68.30% | 33.09% | 17.84% | 8.06% | 3.13% | 1.06% |
| 74 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1583 | 55.40% | 18.71% | 6.27% | 2.39% | 0.72% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 76 | Alycia Parks | 1545 | 44.60% | 12.99% | 3.79% | 1.26% | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 77 | Ann Li | 1536 | 57.65% | 12.69% | 4.25% | 1.37% | 0.34% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 78 | Anna Blinkova | 1482 | 42.35% | 7.27% | 1.98% | 0.52% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1755 | 100.00% | 80.04% | 50.61% | 31.07% | 16.39% | 7.61% | 3.09% |
| 80 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 81 | Petra Kvitova | 1729 | 100.00% | 74.40% | 43.17% | 21.06% | 11.25% | 4.81% | 1.80% |
| 82 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Elizabeth Mandlik | 1494 | 39.00% | 8.02% | 2.14% | 0.46% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 84 | Alison Riske-Amritraj | 1572 | 61.00% | 17.58% | 6.36% | 1.87% | 0.61% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 85 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1623 | 51.59% | 19.90% | 8.31% | 2.94% | 1.14% | 0.34% | 0.09% |
| 86 | Kaia Kanepi | 1612 | 48.41% | 17.94% | 7.23% | 2.46% | 0.92% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 87 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1704 | 100.00% | 62.16% | 32.78% | 14.93% | 7.47% | 2.95% | 1.02% |
| 88 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 89 | Anastasia Potapova | 1629 | 100.00% | 65.93% | 20.45% | 8.51% | 3.38% | 1.01% | 0.27% |
| 90 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Olga Danilovic | 1512 | 49.47% | 16.73% | 3.23% | 0.87% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 92 | Wang Xiyu | 1516 | 50.53% | 17.33% | 3.40% | 0.93% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 93 | Arantxa Rus | 1454 | 24.58% | 2.69% | 0.85% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Camila Giorgi | 1649 | 75.42% | 20.65% | 12.01% | 5.32% | 2.25% | 0.73% | 0.21% |
| 95 | Jessica Pegula | 1818 | 100.00% | 76.66% | 60.06% | 40.46% | 26.45% | 14.58% | 7.09% |
| 96 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 97 | Coco Gauff | 1792 | 100.00% | 86.26% | 57.16% | 33.29% | 17.42% | 10.07% | 4.56% |
| 98 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Katie Swan | 1464 | 47.54% | 6.24% | 1.47% | 0.29% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 100 | Cristina Bucsa | 1481 | 52.46% | 7.50% | 1.90% | 0.40% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Linda Noskova | 1565 | 39.54% | 12.19% | 3.30% | 0.97% | 0.23% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 102 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1639 | 60.46% | 24.50% | 8.62% | 3.30% | 1.06% | 0.39% | 0.11% |
| 103 | Amanda Anisimova | 1706 | 100.00% | 63.31% | 27.55% | 12.91% | 5.24% | 2.41% | 0.83% |
| 104 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 105 | Zhang Shuai | 1603 | 100.00% | 48.97% | 14.60% | 4.69% | 1.31% | 0.43% | 0.10% |
| 106 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Rebecca Peterson | 1542 | 35.36% | 14.62% | 3.45% | 0.87% | 0.19% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Marta Kostyuk | 1647 | 64.64% | 36.40% | 12.70% | 4.78% | 1.58% | 0.60% | 0.17% |
| 109 | Ashlyn Krueger | 1456 | 33.25% | 3.92% | 1.15% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 110 | Jil Teichmann | 1577 | 66.75% | 14.12% | 6.39% | 1.86% | 0.47% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 111 | Belinda Bencic | 1805 | 100.00% | 81.96% | 61.71% | 36.44% | 19.71% | 11.74% | 5.52% |
| 112 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 113 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1794 | 100.00% | 84.41% | 56.92% | 30.15% | 16.66% | 9.66% | 4.39% |
| 114 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Dayana Yastremska | 1505 | 51.35% | 8.19% | 2.36% | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 116 | Anna Bondar | 1495 | 48.65% | 7.41% | 2.05% | 0.38% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Wang Xinyu | 1484 | 26.90% | 6.37% | 1.25% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Elise Mertens | 1657 | 73.10% | 33.42% | 12.55% | 4.43% | 1.63% | 0.64% | 0.19% |
| 119 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1687 | 100.00% | 60.22% | 24.87% | 9.70% | 3.95% | 1.71% | 0.56% |
| 120 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 121 | Donna Vekic | 1691 | 100.00% | 66.78% | 23.75% | 10.44% | 4.30% | 1.88% | 0.62% |
| 122 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1578 | 52.82% | 18.17% | 4.27% | 1.27% | 0.35% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 124 | Zhu Lin | 1559 | 47.18% | 15.05% | 3.27% | 0.90% | 0.23% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 125 | Evgeniya Rodina | 1422 | 28.88% | 2.38% | 0.52% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Alize Cornet | 1579 | 71.12% | 12.91% | 5.17% | 1.54% | 0.42% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 127 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1840 | 100.00% | 84.71% | 63.02% | 40.42% | 24.88% | 15.96% | 8.22% |
| 128 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
