The Indian Wells tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a look at how the 2nd week of the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table with percentages for all 16 players remaining.
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| Indian Wells logo, © BNP Paribas Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Of the 4 favourites for the title, 3 of them are still in. Stefanos Tsitsipas lost in round 2 to Jordan Thompson.
- The player with the easiest overall draw, Felix Auger-Aliassime, is still in, and so is Cameron Norrie, the player with the toughest overall draw.
- Interestingly, the player with the easiest round 1 match, Maximilian Marterer, lost his match against Alejandro Tabilo; and the player with the hardest round 1 match, Brandon Nakashima, won his match vs John Isner before losing in round 2 to Daniil Medvedev.
- Medvedev is still the favourite to win the title, as he has a 25.76% chance of winning the tournament, Carlos Alcaraz is 2nd favourite with 17.98%, Alexander Zverev 3rd with 11.29% and Jannik Sinner 4th with 9.61%.
- Overall, Frances Tiafoe now has the easiest draw here at the expense of Tommy Paul; as Tiafoe is 0.41 percentage points more likely to take the title than a player of his ranking would expect, while Paul is 0.41 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- Tiafoe has the easiest round 4 match relative to his ranking, as he's 27.14 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than expected. Zverev has a tough 4th round match, as he is 34.92 percentage points less likely to get to the next round than expected.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1880 | 77.48% | 51.13% | 32.92% | 17.98% |
| 2 | Jack Draper | 1666 | 22.52% | 8.14% | 2.88% | 0.79% |
| 3 | Tommy Paul | 1745 | 44.89% | 17.14% | 7.87% | 2.89% |
| 4 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1781 | 55.11% | 23.59% | 12.00% | 4.96% |
| 5 | Taylor Fritz | 1791 | 74.68% | 39.26% | 18.22% | 7.76% |
| 6 | Marton Fucsovics | 1603 | 25.32% | 7.13% | 1.67% | 0.35% |
| 7 | Jannik Sinner | 1816 | 70.38% | 41.96% | 20.92% | 9.61% |
| 8 | Stan Wawrinka | 1665 | 29.62% | 11.66% | 3.52% | 0.97% |
| 9 | Daniil Medvedev | 1936 | 61.00% | 52.79% | 38.49% | 25.76% |
| 10 | Alexander Zverev | 1859 | 39.00% | 31.38% | 19.91% | 11.29% |
| 11 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1623 | 53.21% | 8.85% | 2.81% | 0.73% |
| 12 | Cristian Garin | 1601 | 46.79% | 6.99% | 2.03% | 0.48% |
| 13 | Andrey Rublev | 1804 | 52.99% | 35.94% | 15.07% | 7.41% |
| 14 | Cameron Norrie | 1783 | 47.01% | 30.67% | 12.05% | 5.58% |
| 15 | Frances Tiafoe | 1714 | 73.93% | 28.63% | 8.93% | 3.30% |
| 16 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1533 | 26.07% | 4.75% | 0.71% | 0.13% |
