The Miami tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table for percentages for all 96 players competing and how they will do.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Daniil Medvedev is the favourite to win the title, as he has a 23.55% chance of winning the tournament, Carlos Alcaraz is the 2nd favourite with 18.62%, Alexander Zverev 3rd with 9.04% and Stefanos Tsitsipas 4th with 7.85%
- Felix Auger-Aliassime has the easiest overall draw, as he is 1.00 percentage points more likely to win the title than expected. Andrey Rublev has the toughest overall draw, as he is 1.04 percentage points less likely than expected to win the title.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Dusan Lajovic, as he's 26.44 percentage points less likely to make it to round 2 than a player with his ELO rating would expect. Denis Kudla has the easiest 1st round draw, he is 22.07 percentage points more likely to progress to round 2 than her ranking would suggest.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1912 | 100.00% | 93.09% | 76.38% | 60.38% | 45.34% | 30.34% | 18.62% |
| 2 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 1489 | 62.34% | 5.02% | 1.52% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Facundo Bagnis | 1401 | 37.66% | 1.89% | 0.40% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Andy Murray | 1705 | 74.05% | 48.87% | 13.32% | 7.26% | 3.57% | 1.41% | 0.49% |
| 6 | Dusan Lajovic | 1523 | 25.95% | 10.51% | 1.37% | 0.42% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Maxime Cressy | 1590 | 100.00% | 40.63% | 7.02% | 2.73% | 0.93% | 0.24% | 0.05% |
| 8 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1630 | 100.00% | 56.39% | 23.60% | 5.65% | 2.21% | 0.66% | 0.17% |
| 10 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Oscar Otte | 1525 | 36.87% | 13.05% | 3.81% | 0.59% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 12 | Brandon Nakashima | 1619 | 63.13% | 30.56% | 12.35% | 2.83% | 1.06% | 0.31% | 0.08% |
| 13 | Marc-Andrea Husler | 1498 | 48.50% | 9.83% | 3.36% | 0.46% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 14 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1509 | 51.50% | 10.94% | 3.89% | 0.56% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Tommy Paul | 1736 | 100.00% | 79.23% | 53.00% | 18.63% | 9.93% | 4.32% | 1.66% |
| 16 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | Taylor Fritz | 1786 | 100.00% | 72.67% | 52.77% | 34.99% | 15.77% | 7.94% | 3.56% |
| 18 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Emilio Nava | 1458 | 24.33% | 3.19% | 0.95% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 20 | John Isner | 1655 | 75.67% | 24.14% | 13.52% | 6.63% | 1.95% | 0.64% | 0.18% |
| 21 | Guido Pella | 1487 | 46.20% | 12.70% | 2.46% | 0.69% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1513 | 53.80% | 16.47% | 3.58% | 1.10% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 23 | Denis Shapovalov | 1655 | 100.00% | 70.84% | 26.73% | 13.12% | 3.87% | 1.28% | 0.37% |
| 24 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 | Diego Schwartzman | 1571 | 100.00% | 52.35% | 17.42% | 5.46% | 1.16% | 0.27% | 0.06% |
| 26 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Wu Yibing | 1546 | 47.61% | 22.10% | 6.70% | 1.91% | 0.37% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 28 | Kyle Edmund | 1562 | 52.39% | 25.56% | 8.25% | 2.51% | 0.51% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 29 | Pedro Cachin | 1466 | 31.88% | 5.44% | 1.98% | 0.41% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Marton Fucsovics | 1598 | 68.12% | 20.82% | 11.45% | 3.96% | 0.94% | 0.25% | 0.06% |
| 31 | Holger Rune | 1740 | 100.00% | 73.74% | 54.20% | 28.98% | 11.39% | 5.01% | 1.95% |
| 32 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 33 | Casper Ruud | 1747 | 100.00% | 72.92% | 51.13% | 23.51% | 11.30% | 4.76% | 1.89% |
| 34 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Ilya Ivashka | 1613 | 76.24% | 24.09% | 12.60% | 3.76% | 1.16% | 0.31% | 0.07% |
| 36 | Daniel Altmaier | 1411 | 23.76% | 2.99% | 0.77% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Alexei Popyrin | 1489 | 38.74% | 11.99% | 2.78% | 0.51% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 38 | Mikael Ymer | 1569 | 61.26% | 25.41% | 8.09% | 2.04% | 0.53% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 39 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1628 | 100.00% | 62.59% | 24.62% | 7.76% | 2.53% | 0.71% | 0.18% |
| 40 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 41 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1653 | 100.00% | 63.60% | 19.14% | 8.92% | 3.18% | 0.98% | 0.28% |
| 42 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1586 | 61.43% | 24.87% | 5.81% | 2.19% | 0.61% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 44 | Nuno Borges | 1505 | 38.57% | 11.54% | 1.93% | 0.54% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Taro Daniel | 1516 | 45.71% | 5.80% | 2.07% | 0.60% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1546 | 54.29% | 7.99% | 3.17% | 1.04% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 47 | Alexander Zverev | 1851 | 100.00% | 86.21% | 67.88% | 49.03% | 30.43% | 16.92% | 9.04% |
| 48 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 49 | Jannik Sinner | 1823 | 100.00% | 83.92% | 61.81% | 39.23% | 22.68% | 11.77% | 5.85% |
| 50 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Aleksandar Vukic | 1492 | 40.16% | 5.21% | 1.62% | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 52 | Laslo Djere | 1561 | 59.84% | 10.87% | 4.32% | 1.28% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 53 | Fabio Fognini | 1504 | 48.35% | 12.75% | 2.40% | 0.56% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 54 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1515 | 51.65% | 14.29% | 2.82% | 0.69% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1682 | 100.00% | 72.97% | 27.03% | 12.09% | 4.76% | 1.62% | 0.52% |
| 56 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 57 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1621 | 100.00% | 46.35% | 15.54% | 5.12% | 1.63% | 0.44% | 0.11% |
| 58 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Ugo Humbert | 1547 | 30.46% | 12.03% | 3.04% | 0.76% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 60 | Gael Monfils | 1690 | 69.54% | 41.62% | 17.61% | 7.31% | 2.95% | 1.03% | 0.34% |
| 61 | Alexander Bublik | 1599 | 52.88% | 13.00% | 5.72% | 1.74% | 0.51% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 62 | J. J. Wolf | 1579 | 47.12% | 10.60% | 4.37% | 1.23% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 63 | Andrey Rublev | 1793 | 100.00% | 76.40% | 53.72% | 29.63% | 15.99% | 7.69% | 3.52% |
| 64 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 65 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1762 | 100.00% | 77.38% | 59.51% | 32.98% | 12.44% | 6.44% | 2.73% |
| 66 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1584 | 67.07% | 17.70% | 9.68% | 3.11% | 0.60% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 68 | Zizou Bergs | 1460 | 32.93% | 4.93% | 1.84% | 0.36% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Adrian Mannarino | 1592 | 65.83% | 37.79% | 12.67% | 4.19% | 0.84% | 0.25% | 0.06% |
| 70 | Shang Juncheng | 1478 | 34.17% | 14.07% | 3.02% | 0.64% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Ben Shelton | 1540 | 100.00% | 48.14% | 13.29% | 3.62% | 0.58% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 72 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 73 | Borna Coric | 1674 | 100.00% | 79.62% | 32.81% | 16.08% | 4.47% | 1.78% | 0.56% |
| 74 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Christopher Eubanks | 1426 | 47.00% | 9.10% | 1.46% | 0.30% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Denis Kudla | 1447 | 53.00% | 11.29% | 1.99% | 0.44% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Gregoire Barrere | 1476 | 45.02% | 6.61% | 2.02% | 0.51% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 78 | Roman Safiullin | 1511 | 54.98% | 9.54% | 3.31% | 0.95% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Cameron Norrie | 1782 | 100.00% | 83.85% | 58.42% | 36.82% | 14.77% | 8.04% | 3.61% |
| 80 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 81 | Alex De Minaur | 1733 | 100.00% | 82.42% | 43.24% | 13.82% | 7.02% | 3.36% | 1.29% |
| 82 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Pedro Martinez | 1494 | 62.32% | 12.58% | 2.88% | 0.37% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 84 | Quentin Halys | 1407 | 37.68% | 5.00% | 0.77% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1485 | 30.48% | 5.26% | 1.32% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 86 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1628 | 69.52% | 22.42% | 9.32% | 2.05% | 0.75% | 0.26% | 0.07% |
| 87 | Matteo Berrettini | 1757 | 100.00% | 72.32% | 42.47% | 14.66% | 7.92% | 4.04% | 1.68% |
| 88 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 89 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1618 | 100.00% | 60.89% | 10.59% | 3.79% | 1.34% | 0.44% | 0.11% |
| 90 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Alex Molcan | 1567 | 59.63% | 25.53% | 3.59% | 1.07% | 0.31% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 92 | Jordan Thompson | 1499 | 40.37% | 13.58% | 1.42% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 93 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1481 | 44.92% | 2.98% | 1.05% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 1516 | 55.08% | 4.42% | 1.76% | 0.42% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Daniil Medvedev | 1940 | 100.00% | 92.60% | 81.59% | 63.06% | 48.22% | 35.72% | 23.55% |
| 96 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 97 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1782 | 100.00% | 82.03% | 65.08% | 42.31% | 23.63% | 10.14% | 4.56% |
| 98 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Thiago Monteiro | 1469 | 39.13% | 5.54% | 2.17% | 0.54% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 100 | Jason Kubler | 1546 | 60.87% | 12.43% | 6.21% | 2.08% | 0.55% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 101 | Aleksandar Kovacevic | 1505 | 52.56% | 20.91% | 4.68% | 1.34% | 0.30% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 102 | Jaume Munar | 1487 | 47.44% | 17.72% | 3.68% | 0.98% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 103 | Francisco Cerundolo | 1577 | 100.00% | 61.36% | 18.18% | 6.80% | 2.03% | 0.41% | 0.09% |
| 104 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 105 | Daniel Evans | 1599 | 100.00% | 46.44% | 17.97% | 6.63% | 2.15% | 0.48% | 0.11% |
| 106 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1558 | 35.67% | 15.75% | 5.31% | 1.70% | 0.47% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 108 | Dominic Thiem | 1661 | 64.33% | 37.81% | 17.66% | 7.87% | 3.14% | 0.89% | 0.26% |
| 109 | Yosuke Watanuki | 1501 | 64.99% | 13.90% | 4.76% | 1.24% | 0.27% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 110 | Benoit Paire | 1394 | 35.01% | 4.48% | 0.98% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Frances Tiafoe | 1727 | 100.00% | 81.62% | 53.32% | 28.35% | 13.77% | 4.96% | 1.87% |
| 112 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 113 | Karen Khachanov | 1723 | 100.00% | 81.10% | 56.22% | 26.27% | 13.53% | 4.80% | 1.78% |
| 114 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Pavel Kotov | 1476 | 51.72% | 10.04% | 3.56% | 0.70% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 116 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1464 | 48.28% | 8.86% | 3.01% | 0.56% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Federico Coria | 1512 | 41.60% | 15.50% | 4.52% | 1.03% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 118 | Jiri Lehecka | 1571 | 58.40% | 26.55% | 9.55% | 2.74% | 0.87% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 119 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1602 | 100.00% | 57.96% | 23.14% | 7.43% | 2.64% | 0.60% | 0.14% |
| 120 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 121 | Sebastian Baez | 1556 | 100.00% | 45.36% | 10.17% | 3.75% | 1.13% | 0.21% | 0.04% |
| 122 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Marcos Giron | 1586 | 49.15% | 26.64% | 6.73% | 2.73% | 0.92% | 0.19% | 0.04% |
| 124 | Cristian Garin | 1592 | 50.85% | 28.00% | 7.24% | 3.00% | 1.03% | 0.22% | 0.05% |
| 125 | Richard Gasquet | 1626 | 69.07% | 16.23% | 9.31% | 4.28% | 1.65% | 0.41% | 0.11% |
| 126 | Christopher O'Connell | 1486 | 30.93% | 3.74% | 1.41% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 127 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1831 | 100.00% | 80.03% | 65.13% | 47.12% | 30.97% | 15.24% | 7.85% |
| 128 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
