Tomorrow, the 2nd Grand Slam tournament of the year, the French Open, begins. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.
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- Novak Djokovic is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 23.65% chance of winning the whole thing, with Rafael Nadal next at 22.06%. The 3rd most likely is Daniil Medvedev with 13.08% and Stefanos Tsitsipas is the 4th favourite with 8.84%
- Stefanos Tsitsipas has the easiest overall draw, as he is 0.87 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Alexander Zverev has a tough draw. He is 0.87 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Lorenzo Musetti, as he's 44.43 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Bernabe Zapata Miralles got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 34.99 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2007 | 94.91% | 86.99% | 79.41% | 69.53% | 43.43% | 32.16% | 23.64% |
| 2 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1499 | 5.09% | 1.92% | 0.74% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Alex Molcan | 1618 | 61.26% | 7.67% | 4.18% | 1.87% | 0.39% | 0.10% | 0.03% |
| 4 | Federico Coria | 1538 | 38.74% | 3.42% | 1.49% | 0.51% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Aljaz Bedene | 1533 | 58.97% | 23.03% | 2.53% | 0.86% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Christopher O'Connell | 1470 | 41.03% | 12.81% | 1.07% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Pablo Cuevas | 1487 | 26.99% | 12.70% | 1.14% | 0.32% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Jenson Brooksby | 1660 | 73.01% | 51.46% | 9.43% | 4.75% | 1.15% | 0.35% | 0.10% |
| 9 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1705 | 69.75% | 46.50% | 27.91% | 6.99% | 1.99% | 0.71% | 0.25% |
| 10 | Marcos Giron | 1560 | 30.25% | 14.18% | 5.85% | 0.86% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 11 | Borna Coric | 1620 | 65.25% | 28.84% | 14.12% | 2.62% | 0.55% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| 12 | Carlos Taberner | 1511 | 34.75% | 10.47% | 3.68% | 0.44% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Daniel Altmaier | 1459 | 44.73% | 10.81% | 2.89% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 14 | Jaume Munar | 1495 | 55.27% | 15.50% | 4.80% | 0.54% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Andrey Kuznetsov | 1522 | 24.74% | 13.88% | 4.74% | 0.60% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Diego Schwartzman | 1715 | 75.26% | 59.81% | 36.01% | 9.32% | 2.73% | 1.01% | 0.37% |
| 17 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1742 | 81.80% | 61.82% | 41.86% | 12.28% | 3.82% | 1.54% | 0.61% |
| 18 | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1481 | 18.20% | 7.49% | 2.48% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 1500 | 39.70% | 10.27% | 3.65% | 0.43% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Aslan Karatsev | 1573 | 60.30% | 20.42% | 9.22% | 1.48% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 21 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1542 | 59.96% | 21.44% | 7.37% | 1.04% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 22 | Borna Gojo | 1472 | 40.04% | 10.90% | 2.89% | 0.30% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Filip Krajinovic | 1584 | 36.32% | 21.71% | 8.56% | 1.43% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 24 | Reilly Opelka | 1681 | 63.68% | 45.95% | 23.96% | 5.74% | 1.46% | 0.48% | 0.15% |
| 25 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1627 | 70.07% | 41.47% | 6.74% | 3.05% | 0.64% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 26 | Pavel Kotov | 1479 | 29.93% | 11.54% | 0.98% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Fabio Fognini | 1596 | 63.14% | 32.64% | 4.65% | 1.92% | 0.35% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 28 | Alexei Popyrin | 1502 | 36.86% | 14.34% | 1.35% | 0.40% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 29 | Stan Wawrinka | 1698 | 73.31% | 13.09% | 8.61% | 4.72% | 1.27% | 0.44% | 0.15% |
| 30 | Corentin Moutet | 1522 | 26.69% | 2.23% | 0.93% | 0.30% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Jordan Thompson | 1522 | 5.77% | 1.89% | 0.79% | 0.25% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Rafael Nadal | 2007 | 94.23% | 82.79% | 75.95% | 66.10% | 40.59% | 30.05% | 22.07% |
| 33 | Alexander Zverev | 1890 | 89.16% | 78.15% | 67.15% | 51.36% | 33.04% | 13.41% | 7.96% |
| 34 | Sebastian Ofner | 1524 | 10.84% | 5.06% | 2.21% | 0.69% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Dusan Lajovic | 1506 | 40.13% | 5.59% | 2.30% | 0.67% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Sebastian Baez | 1575 | 59.87% | 11.20% | 5.68% | 2.12% | 0.53% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 37 | Brandon Nakashima | 1568 | 61.04% | 29.33% | 6.50% | 2.36% | 0.58% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 38 | Kamil Majchrzak | 1490 | 38.96% | 14.60% | 2.38% | 0.65% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Tallon Griekspoor | 1485 | 30.99% | 13.21% | 2.11% | 0.57% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 40 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1624 | 69.01% | 42.86% | 11.67% | 5.07% | 1.54% | 0.23% | 0.06% |
| 41 | John Isner | 1698 | 84.38% | 66.77% | 37.32% | 14.47% | 5.68% | 1.16% | 0.40% |
| 42 | Quentin Halys | 1405 | 15.62% | 6.47% | 1.44% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Taro Daniel | 1487 | 57.32% | 16.60% | 5.05% | 0.94% | 0.16% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Gregoire Barrere | 1436 | 42.68% | 10.16% | 2.56% | 0.38% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Michael Mmoh | 1448 | 50.17% | 10.71% | 3.11% | 0.49% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 1447 | 49.83% | 10.59% | 3.06% | 0.48% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 47 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna | 1500 | 20.38% | 11.73% | 4.09% | 0.80% | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 48 | Taylor Fritz | 1737 | 79.62% | 66.97% | 43.37% | 18.76% | 8.30% | 1.98% | 0.77% |
| 49 | Cameron Norrie | 1774 | 82.91% | 70.70% | 44.46% | 22.10% | 10.71% | 2.94% | 1.29% |
| 50 | Manuel Guinard | 1500 | 17.09% | 9.30% | 2.53% | 0.50% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Jason Kubler | 1473 | 51.27% | 10.44% | 2.55% | 0.45% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 52 | Denis Kudla | 1464 | 48.73% | 9.56% | 2.25% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Hugo Dellien | 1420 | 14.85% | 3.61% | 0.73% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 54 | Dominic Thiem | 1723 | 85.15% | 53.82% | 28.93% | 12.55% | 5.28% | 1.19% | 0.45% |
| 55 | Nuno Borges | 1508 | 28.25% | 8.03% | 2.29% | 0.47% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 56 | Karen Khachanov | 1670 | 71.75% | 34.54% | 16.26% | 6.03% | 2.15% | 0.39% | 0.12% |
| 57 | Sebastian Korda | 1650 | 65.38% | 39.21% | 12.15% | 5.02% | 1.67% | 0.28% | 0.08% |
| 58 | John Millman | 1540 | 34.62% | 15.32% | 3.15% | 0.88% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Lloyd Harris | 1571 | 47.39% | 20.92% | 4.86% | 1.52% | 0.38% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 60 | Richard Gasquet | 1589 | 52.61% | 24.56% | 6.10% | 2.04% | 0.55% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 61 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1543 | 43.37% | 7.48% | 3.12% | 0.88% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1589 | 56.63% | 11.79% | 5.69% | 1.91% | 0.51% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 63 | Juan Ignacio Londero | 1444 | 7.94% | 2.61% | 0.76% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 64 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1870 | 92.06% | 78.13% | 64.17% | 45.00% | 27.31% | 10.40% | 5.90% |
| 65 | Casper Ruud | 1809 | 81.01% | 64.29% | 54.12% | 38.43% | 22.06% | 11.08% | 3.69% |
| 66 | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 1557 | 18.99% | 9.00% | 5.03% | 1.94% | 0.54% | 0.11% | 0.01% |
| 67 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1579 | 51.14% | 13.86% | 8.16% | 3.37% | 1.01% | 0.24% | 0.03% |
| 68 | Ugo Humbert | 1571 | 48.86% | 12.84% | 7.42% | 2.99% | 0.87% | 0.20% | 0.02% |
| 69 | Joao Sousa | 1470 | 49.51% | 19.63% | 4.09% | 1.15% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 70 | Tseng Chun-hsin | 1473 | 50.49% | 20.25% | 4.28% | 1.22% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Peter Gojowczyk | 1519 | 43.90% | 24.95% | 6.36% | 2.15% | 0.52% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 72 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1562 | 56.10% | 35.18% | 10.53% | 4.13% | 1.17% | 0.25% | 0.03% |
| 73 | Frances Tiafoe | 1635 | 66.79% | 39.83% | 19.33% | 8.37% | 3.03% | 0.88% | 0.15% |
| 74 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1514 | 33.21% | 14.16% | 4.76% | 1.40% | 0.33% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 75 | Jiri Lehecka | 1507 | 36.89% | 13.99% | 4.60% | 1.32% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.00% |
| 76 | David Goffin | 1600 | 63.11% | 32.03% | 14.13% | 5.53% | 1.79% | 0.45% | 0.06% |
| 77 | Marco Cecchinato | 1463 | 45.94% | 10.76% | 3.54% | 0.86% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 78 | Pablo Andujar | 1491 | 54.06% | 14.17% | 5.18% | 1.40% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Giulio Zeppieri | 1478 | 18.98% | 9.48% | 3.30% | 0.85% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 80 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1730 | 81.02% | 65.59% | 45.18% | 24.89% | 11.84% | 4.74% | 1.18% |
| 81 | Denis Shapovalov | 1681 | 65.98% | 45.96% | 28.21% | 11.33% | 5.34% | 1.82% | 0.37% |
| 82 | Holger Rune | 1566 | 34.02% | 18.53% | 8.54% | 2.39% | 0.78% | 0.17% | 0.02% |
| 83 | Pedro Martinez | 1569 | 63.83% | 25.51% | 11.88% | 3.36% | 1.12% | 0.25% | 0.03% |
| 84 | Henri Laaksonen | 1471 | 36.17% | 10.00% | 3.38% | 0.66% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Norbert Gombos | 1452 | 43.63% | 11.50% | 3.38% | 0.61% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 86 | Pedro Cachin | 1496 | 56.37% | 17.74% | 6.16% | 1.33% | 0.34% | 0.06% | 0.00% |
| 87 | Hugo Gaston | 1542 | 31.41% | 18.61% | 7.57% | 1.95% | 0.59% | 0.12% | 0.01% |
| 88 | Alex De Minaur | 1678 | 68.59% | 52.14% | 30.89% | 12.31% | 5.75% | 1.94% | 0.39% |
| 89 | Daniel Evans | 1583 | 54.18% | 30.91% | 8.07% | 3.62% | 1.26% | 0.30% | 0.04% |
| 90 | Francisco Cerundolo | 1554 | 45.82% | 24.25% | 5.70% | 2.33% | 0.73% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 91 | Mikael Ymer | 1539 | 51.66% | 23.58% | 5.24% | 2.04% | 0.61% | 0.12% | 0.01% |
| 92 | James Duckworth | 1528 | 48.34% | 21.27% | 4.52% | 1.69% | 0.48% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 93 | Lucas Pouille | 1519 | 53.92% | 8.75% | 3.95% | 1.44% | 0.40% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 94 | Zdenek Kolar | 1492 | 46.08% | 6.61% | 2.73% | 0.90% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1593 | 16.61% | 10.31% | 5.73% | 2.64% | 0.95% | 0.23% | 0.03% |
| 96 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1873 | 83.39% | 74.33% | 64.07% | 51.39% | 36.57% | 21.43% | 8.83% |
| 97 | Andrey Rublev | 1807 | 81.52% | 68.03% | 51.52% | 33.44% | 17.05% | 9.42% | 3.12% |
| 98 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1549 | 18.48% | 9.91% | 4.15% | 1.37% | 0.31% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 99 | Adrian Mannarino | 1551 | 59.40% | 14.53% | 6.12% | 2.03% | 0.46% | 0.11% | 0.01% |
| 100 | Federico Delbonis | 1485 | 40.60% | 7.53% | 2.51% | 0.66% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Benoit Paire | 1430 | 26.00% | 6.49% | 1.19% | 0.25% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 102 | Ilya Ivashka | 1612 | 74.00% | 35.95% | 13.00% | 5.26% | 1.49% | 0.46% | 0.07% |
| 103 | Christian Garin | 1609 | 46.43% | 25.90% | 9.26% | 3.71% | 1.04% | 0.32% | 0.05% |
| 104 | Tommy Paul | 1633 | 53.57% | 31.67% | 12.25% | 5.28% | 1.62% | 0.54% | 0.09% |
| 105 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1579 | 57.17% | 31.26% | 10.37% | 3.55% | 0.89% | 0.24% | 0.03% |
| 106 | Maxime Cressy | 1529 | 42.83% | 20.37% | 5.67% | 1.62% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 107 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1576 | 60.76% | 31.96% | 10.49% | 3.55% | 0.88% | 0.24% | 0.03% |
| 108 | Franco Agamenone | 1500 | 39.24% | 16.41% | 4.10% | 1.05% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 109 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1456 | 37.13% | 6.51% | 2.36% | 0.50% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 110 | Oscar Otte | 1548 | 62.87% | 15.95% | 7.81% | 2.39% | 0.53% | 0.13% | 0.01% |
| 111 | Bjorn Fratangelo | 1456 | 12.77% | 5.35% | 1.94% | 0.41% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 112 | Jannik Sinner | 1790 | 87.23% | 72.19% | 57.25% | 34.93% | 17.07% | 9.05% | 2.82% |
| 113 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1696 | 79.44% | 57.70% | 35.71% | 12.36% | 5.58% | 2.28% | 0.49% |
| 114 | Gilles Simon | 1461 | 20.56% | 8.40% | 2.56% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Jiri Vesely | 1498 | 43.14% | 13.23% | 4.64% | 0.78% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 116 | Steve Johnson | 1546 | 56.86% | 20.67% | 8.56% | 1.74% | 0.48% | 0.11% | 0.01% |
| 117 | Marton Fucsovics | 1600 | 65.24% | 30.48% | 14.44% | 3.62% | 1.21% | 0.36% | 0.05% |
| 118 | Geoffery Blancaneaux | 1491 | 34.76% | 11.25% | 3.75% | 0.61% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 119 | Attila Balazs | 1517 | 29.52% | 12.87% | 4.70% | 0.85% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 120 | Marin Cilic | 1668 | 70.48% | 45.41% | 25.63% | 8.12% | 3.38% | 1.26% | 0.24% |
| 121 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1649 | 74.98% | 46.36% | 12.11% | 6.34% | 2.49% | 0.87% | 0.15% |
| 122 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1458 | 25.02% | 8.78% | 1.08% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1562 | 49.22% | 21.90% | 4.14% | 1.68% | 0.49% | 0.13% | 0.01% |
| 124 | Alexander Bublik | 1568 | 50.78% | 22.97% | 4.43% | 1.83% | 0.54% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 125 | Ricardas Berankis | 1505 | 41.15% | 4.95% | 1.86% | 0.62% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Laslo Djere | 1567 | 58.85% | 9.23% | 4.25% | 1.75% | 0.52% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 127 | Facundo Bagnis | 1418 | 5.67% | 1.87% | 0.51% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Daniil Medvedev | 1907 | 94.33% | 83.95% | 71.62% | 58.91% | 42.35% | 28.66% | 13.08% |
