Tomorrow, the 2nd Grand Slam tournament of the year, the French Open, begins. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.
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- Iga Swiatek is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 24.42% chance of winning the whole thing, with Ons Jabeur next at 10.51%. The 3rd most likely is Anett Kontaveit with 7.45% and Simona Halep is the 4th favourite with 5.51%
- Simona Halep has the easiest overall draw, as she is 0.95 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Naomi Osaka has a tough draw. She is 1.38 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Magda Linette, as she's 43.55 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Heather Watson got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 27.63 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1936 | 91.55% | 79.45% | 72.52% | 54.40% | 44.14% | 34.09% | 24.42% |
| 2 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1522 | 8.45% | 3.21% | 1.61% | 0.40% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 3 | Alison Riske | 1630 | 57.75% | 10.95% | 7.11% | 2.63% | 1.17% | 0.45% | 0.14% |
| 4 | Dayana Yastremska | 1576 | 42.25% | 6.39% | 3.69% | 1.13% | 0.42% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 5 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1473 | 51.06% | 20.25% | 2.43% | 0.50% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Kristina Kucova | 1466 | 48.94% | 18.92% | 2.20% | 0.44% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Danka Kovinic | 1481 | 35.53% | 18.33% | 2.28% | 0.48% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1584 | 64.47% | 42.50% | 8.17% | 2.59% | 1.00% | 0.32% | 0.09% |
| 9 | Simona Halep | 1811 | 83.77% | 71.43% | 50.44% | 23.07% | 15.75% | 9.88% | 5.51% |
| 10 | Ana Konjuh | 1525 | 16.23% | 8.58% | 2.94% | 0.54% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 11 | Maryna Zanevska | 1495 | 47.22% | 9.04% | 2.77% | 0.46% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 12 | Zheng Qinwen | 1515 | 52.78% | 10.96% | 3.61% | 0.64% | 0.19% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 13 | Alize Cornet | 1570 | 67.09% | 23.60% | 7.31% | 1.60% | 0.59% | 0.18% | 0.05% |
| 14 | Misaki Doi | 1446 | 32.91% | 7.13% | 1.39% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Lucia Bronzetti | 1538 | 25.01% | 12.78% | 3.53% | 0.68% | 0.22% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 16 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1728 | 74.99% | 56.50% | 28.02% | 10.24% | 5.92% | 3.06% | 1.36% |
| 17 | Jessica Pegula | 1762 | 72.92% | 54.54% | 43.13% | 28.16% | 11.12% | 6.25% | 3.07% |
| 18 | Wang Qiang | 1590 | 27.08% | 14.36% | 8.41% | 3.55% | 0.76% | 0.25% | 0.07% |
| 19 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1609 | 67.49% | 24.07% | 14.73% | 6.60% | 1.52% | 0.54% | 0.16% |
| 20 | Hailey Baptiste | 1482 | 32.51% | 7.03% | 3.05% | 0.88% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Mayar Sherif | 1432 | 34.37% | 11.98% | 2.47% | 0.58% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Marta Kostyuk | 1544 | 65.63% | 33.18% | 10.72% | 3.89% | 0.69% | 0.19% | 0.04% |
| 23 | Claire Liu | 1531 | 47.47% | 25.42% | 7.83% | 2.71% | 0.46% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 24 | Tamara Zidansek | 1549 | 52.53% | 29.42% | 9.67% | 3.56% | 0.64% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 25 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1689 | 79.04% | 52.12% | 30.39% | 16.88% | 5.24% | 2.42% | 0.95% |
| 26 | Greet Minnen | 1458 | 20.96% | 7.13% | 2.08% | 0.56% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1593 | 56.22% | 24.29% | 11.08% | 4.76% | 1.03% | 0.35% | 0.09% |
| 28 | Jasmine Paolini | 1549 | 43.78% | 16.46% | 6.58% | 2.47% | 0.45% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 29 | Leolia Jeanjean | 1500 | 47.16% | 14.05% | 4.66% | 1.47% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 30 | Nuria Parrizas Diaz | 1520 | 52.84% | 16.93% | 6.03% | 2.04% | 0.33% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 31 | Tessah Andrianjafitrimo | 1459 | 19.48% | 8.30% | 2.35% | 0.63% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Karolina Pliskova | 1705 | 80.52% | 60.72% | 36.83% | 21.24% | 6.97% | 3.37% | 1.39% |
| 33 | Paula Badosa | 1780 | 81.31% | 65.07% | 46.32% | 33.07% | 19.61% | 8.85% | 4.56% |
| 34 | Fiona Ferro | 1525 | 18.69% | 9.02% | 3.51% | 1.33% | 0.35% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 35 | Oksana Selekhmeteva | 1494 | 39.87% | 8.63% | 3.04% | 1.03% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 36 | Kaja Juvan | 1565 | 60.13% | 17.28% | 7.63% | 3.29% | 1.02% | 0.22% | 0.05% |
| 37 | Aleksandra Krunic | 1483 | 50.57% | 14.84% | 3.68% | 1.20% | 0.27% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 38 | Kamilla Rakhimova | 1479 | 49.43% | 14.29% | 3.49% | 1.12% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 39 | Zhu Lin | 1459 | 20.61% | 9.63% | 2.16% | 0.64% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 40 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1693 | 79.39% | 61.25% | 30.19% | 18.28% | 8.66% | 2.98% | 1.18% |
| 41 | Madison Keys | 1659 | 68.00% | 45.16% | 25.91% | 11.77% | 5.04% | 1.55% | 0.55% |
| 42 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1529 | 32.00% | 15.47% | 6.17% | 1.82% | 0.49% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 43 | Taylor Townsend | 1507 | 41.75% | 14.58% | 5.40% | 1.47% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 44 | Caroline Garcia | 1564 | 58.25% | 24.80% | 11.06% | 3.71% | 1.14% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 45 | Katie Volynets | 1423 | 32.14% | 7.84% | 2.19% | 0.42% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Viktorija Golubic | 1553 | 67.86% | 26.76% | 11.89% | 3.83% | 1.13% | 0.23% | 0.05% |
| 47 | Arantxa Rus | 1476 | 23.81% | 10.72% | 3.67% | 0.88% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 48 | Elena Rybakina | 1678 | 76.19% | 54.69% | 33.71% | 16.14% | 7.33% | 2.41% | 0.91% |
| 49 | Danielle Collins | 1753 | 87.80% | 62.92% | 40.53% | 23.86% | 14.15% | 5.89% | 2.81% |
| 50 | Viktoriya Tomova | 1410 | 12.20% | 3.19% | 0.73% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Shelby Rogers | 1611 | 56.62% | 20.50% | 9.47% | 3.80% | 1.54% | 0.39% | 0.12% |
| 52 | Tereza Martincova | 1565 | 43.38% | 13.39% | 5.40% | 1.86% | 0.64% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 53 | Panna Udvardy | 1447 | 42.40% | 9.17% | 1.95% | 0.42% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 54 | Fernanda Contreras | 1500 | 57.60% | 15.55% | 4.11% | 1.11% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 55 | Rebecca Peterson | 1550 | 26.45% | 15.92% | 5.09% | 1.66% | 0.54% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 56 | Daria Kasatkina | 1727 | 73.55% | 59.37% | 32.71% | 18.17% | 10.17% | 3.92% | 1.74% |
| 57 | Camila Giorgi | 1606 | 60.36% | 29.63% | 11.43% | 4.38% | 1.74% | 0.44% | 0.13% |
| 58 | Zhang Shuai | 1533 | 39.64% | 15.62% | 4.72% | 1.39% | 0.43% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 59 | Irina Bara | 1446 | 22.71% | 7.29% | 1.59% | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 60 | Yulia Putintseva | 1659 | 77.29% | 47.46% | 21.39% | 9.67% | 4.52% | 1.38% | 0.49% |
| 61 | Madison Brengle | 1506 | 49.34% | 11.49% | 4.14% | 1.10% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 62 | Mihaela Buzarnescu | 1511 | 50.66% | 12.01% | 4.40% | 1.19% | 0.34% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 63 | Chloe Paquet | 1410 | 11.30% | 4.09% | 1.01% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 64 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1767 | 88.70% | 72.41% | 51.31% | 30.74% | 18.82% | 8.19% | 4.08% |
| 65 | Ons Jabeur | 1851 | 81.41% | 73.25% | 58.44% | 44.32% | 28.55% | 18.70% | 10.51% |
| 66 | Magda Linette | 1594 | 18.59% | 12.49% | 6.07% | 2.67% | 0.81% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 67 | Martina Trevisan | 1475 | 51.49% | 7.51% | 2.46% | 0.72% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 68 | Harriet Dart | 1464 | 48.51% | 6.75% | 2.13% | 0.60% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Valentini Grammatikopoulou | 1432 | 29.53% | 7.47% | 1.19% | 0.29% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 70 | Daria Saville | 1583 | 70.47% | 30.99% | 8.77% | 3.72% | 1.08% | 0.33% | 0.08% |
| 71 | Anna Bondar | 1527 | 30.58% | 14.78% | 3.42% | 1.21% | 0.28% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 72 | Petra Kvitova | 1669 | 69.42% | 46.76% | 17.51% | 9.45% | 3.76% | 1.55% | 0.51% |
| 73 | Angelique Kerber | 1723 | 84.89% | 69.39% | 48.39% | 22.52% | 10.61% | 5.15% | 2.04% |
| 74 | Magdalena Frech | 1424 | 15.11% | 6.70% | 2.01% | 0.32% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Heather Watson | 1463 | 49.89% | 11.91% | 4.15% | 0.78% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Elsa Jacquemot | 1463 | 50.11% | 12.00% | 4.19% | 0.79% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1633 | 69.48% | 43.97% | 21.27% | 7.57% | 2.65% | 0.97% | 0.28% |
| 78 | Wang Xinyu | 1490 | 30.52% | 13.20% | 4.12% | 0.87% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 79 | Linda Noskova | 1500 | 40.98% | 15.48% | 5.00% | 1.10% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 80 | Emma Raducanu | 1563 | 59.02% | 27.35% | 10.86% | 3.04% | 0.82% | 0.23% | 0.05% |
| 81 | Belinda Bencic | 1760 | 84.06% | 51.50% | 36.28% | 18.31% | 9.61% | 5.14% | 2.28% |
| 82 | Reka-Luca Jani | 1471 | 15.94% | 4.05% | 1.28% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Bianca Andreescu | 1718 | 82.45% | 41.04% | 26.75% | 11.95% | 5.62% | 2.68% | 1.04% |
| 84 | Ysaline Bonaventure | 1449 | 17.55% | 3.42% | 0.99% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Katerina Siniakova | 1592 | 48.49% | 23.23% | 7.59% | 2.19% | 0.69% | 0.22% | 0.05% |
| 86 | Petra Martic | 1603 | 51.51% | 25.42% | 8.63% | 2.59% | 0.85% | 0.28% | 0.07% |
| 87 | Kristina Mladenovic | 1523 | 32.74% | 12.90% | 3.21% | 0.70% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 88 | Leylah Fernandez | 1648 | 67.26% | 38.45% | 15.27% | 5.41% | 2.07% | 0.79% | 0.24% |
| 89 | Amanda Anisimova | 1734 | 37.86% | 27.71% | 14.22% | 7.93% | 3.90% | 1.95% | 0.80% |
| 90 | Naomi Osaka | 1820 | 62.14% | 50.74% | 31.87% | 21.36% | 12.86% | 7.92% | 4.13% |
| 91 | Mirjam Bjorklund | 1495 | 36.46% | 5.81% | 1.31% | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 92 | Donna Vekic | 1592 | 63.54% | 15.73% | 5.16% | 1.89% | 0.60% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 93 | Carole Monnet | 1495 | 25.30% | 5.42% | 1.14% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Karolina Muchova | 1683 | 74.70% | 31.46% | 13.18% | 6.42% | 2.73% | 1.18% | 0.41% |
| 95 | Clara Burel | 1490 | 15.66% | 4.86% | 1.00% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 96 | Maria Sakkari | 1783 | 84.34% | 58.26% | 32.12% | 20.01% | 11.10% | 6.28% | 2.97% |
| 97 | Anett Kontaveit | 1822 | 80.41% | 69.63% | 53.71% | 37.08% | 24.75% | 14.24% | 7.45% |
| 98 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1576 | 19.59% | 11.98% | 5.53% | 2.03% | 0.71% | 0.19% | 0.04% |
| 99 | Astra Sharma | 1495 | 49.28% | 8.96% | 3.15% | 0.85% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 100 | Varvara Gracheva | 1500 | 50.72% | 9.43% | 3.38% | 0.93% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 101 | Lauren Davis | 1516 | 41.20% | 14.37% | 3.58% | 1.05% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 102 | Marie Bouzkova | 1578 | 58.80% | 25.33% | 7.87% | 2.90% | 1.02% | 0.27% | 0.06% |
| 103 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse | 1537 | 31.83% | 15.22% | 4.10% | 1.31% | 0.39% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 104 | Elise Mertens | 1670 | 68.17% | 45.08% | 18.69% | 9.18% | 4.30% | 1.60% | 0.53% |
| 105 | Coco Gauff | 1724 | 77.74% | 53.99% | 31.72% | 16.05% | 8.69% | 3.85% | 1.53% |
| 106 | Rebecca Marino | 1507 | 22.26% | 8.81% | 2.71% | 0.68% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 107 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1553 | 43.09% | 14.55% | 5.28% | 1.58% | 0.51% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 108 | Ann Li | 1601 | 56.91% | 22.65% | 9.61% | 3.40% | 1.29% | 0.37% | 0.10% |
| 109 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1550 | 62.89% | 18.92% | 6.88% | 2.03% | 0.65% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| 110 | Cristina Bucsa | 1459 | 37.11% | 7.57% | 1.95% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Kaia Kanepi | 1624 | 34.01% | 22.04% | 10.16% | 3.86% | 1.58% | 0.50% | 0.14% |
| 112 | Garbine Muguruza | 1739 | 65.99% | 51.47% | 31.70% | 16.66% | 9.36% | 4.34% | 1.80% |
| 113 | Victoria Azarenka | 1755 | 83.15% | 63.92% | 46.63% | 28.59% | 15.36% | 7.43% | 3.24% |
| 114 | Ana Bogdan | 1477 | 16.85% | 6.87% | 2.55% | 0.68% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Oceane Dodin | 1491 | 38.15% | 9.06% | 3.53% | 1.00% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 116 | Andrea Petkovic | 1575 | 61.85% | 20.15% | 10.13% | 3.85% | 1.19% | 0.31% | 0.07% |
| 117 | Olga Danilovic | 1497 | 51.84% | 18.31% | 5.11% | 1.47% | 0.33% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 118 | Dalma Galfi | 1484 | 48.16% | 16.25% | 4.31% | 1.18% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 119 | Bernada Pera | 1486 | 27.81% | 13.72% | 3.67% | 1.02% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 120 | Jil Teichmann | 1652 | 72.19% | 51.72% | 24.07% | 11.53% | 4.62% | 1.61% | 0.50% |
| 121 | Sorana Cirstea | 1602 | 62.91% | 36.48% | 13.86% | 5.83% | 1.98% | 0.57% | 0.15% |
| 122 | Tatjana Maria | 1510 | 37.09% | 16.71% | 4.60% | 1.42% | 0.34% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 123 | Sloane Stephens | 1578 | 61.98% | 31.81% | 11.14% | 4.34% | 1.35% | 0.35% | 0.08% |
| 124 | Jule Niemeier | 1493 | 38.02% | 15.01% | 3.86% | 1.12% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 125 | Camila Osorio | 1593 | 68.74% | 22.63% | 12.29% | 5.03% | 1.65% | 0.46% | 0.11% |
| 126 | Harmony Tan | 1456 | 31.26% | 6.10% | 2.15% | 0.54% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 127 | Diane Parry | 1445 | 13.62% | 4.85% | 1.64% | 0.39% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1765 | 86.38% | 66.42% | 50.47% | 32.01% | 17.66% | 8.81% | 3.96% |
