The 1st round of the French Open has finished, so let's take a look at how those results impacted my ratings of the players still in, and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the Men and the Women here. Who's doing better so far, the top players, or the lower ranked players? Some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | 20 | -31 |
| 11-20 | 3 | 8 |
| 21-50 | -27 | 102 |
| 51-100 | 3 | 31 |
| 101-150 | 50 | -71 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2008 | 90.32% | 85.06% | 73.05% | 43.60% | 31.88% | 23.07% |
| 2 | Alex Molcan | 1620 | 9.68% | 6.14% | 2.48% | 0.46% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 3 | Aljaz Bedene | 1541 | 55.74% | 5.31% | 1.61% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Pablo Cuevas | 1501 | 44.26% | 3.49% | 0.90% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1711 | 61.90% | 34.07% | 7.99% | 2.06% | 0.72% | 0.24% |
| 6 | Borna Coric | 1627 | 38.10% | 16.65% | 2.88% | 0.54% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 7 | Jaume Munar | 1504 | 22.45% | 6.07% | 0.65% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Diego Schwartzman | 1720 | 77.55% | 43.21% | 10.43% | 2.77% | 1.00% | 0.35% |
| 9 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1746 | 79.32% | 58.89% | 15.22% | 4.45% | 1.75% | 0.67% |
| 10 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 1512 | 20.68% | 9.02% | 0.92% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Borna Gojo | 1482 | 34.10% | 8.09% | 0.72% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Filip Krajinovic | 1596 | 65.90% | 24.00% | 3.52% | 0.59% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 13 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1633 | 54.29% | 7.42% | 3.35% | 0.65% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 14 | Fabio Fognini | 1603 | 45.71% | 5.49% | 2.27% | 0.39% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 15 | Corentin Moutet | 1537 | 6.24% | 2.40% | 0.79% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Rafael Nadal | 2008 | 93.76% | 84.70% | 73.20% | 43.81% | 32.03% | 23.17% |
| 17 | Alexander Zverev | 1892 | 85.57% | 75.18% | 55.76% | 35.19% | 13.77% | 7.98% |
| 18 | Sebastian Baez | 1583 | 14.43% | 7.99% | 2.71% | 0.66% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 19 | Brandon Nakashima | 1576 | 60.85% | 11.53% | 3.81% | 0.90% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 20 | Tallon Griekspoor | 1499 | 39.15% | 5.30% | 1.30% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 21 | John Isner | 1701 | 81.15% | 40.73% | 14.61% | 5.54% | 1.06% | 0.35% |
| 22 | Gregoire Barrere | 1448 | 18.85% | 3.96% | 0.55% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 1457 | 16.31% | 4.18% | 0.60% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 24 | Taylor Fritz | 1741 | 83.69% | 51.13% | 20.66% | 8.89% | 2.00% | 0.75% |
| 25 | Cameron Norrie | 1783 | 84.92% | 59.11% | 28.48% | 13.40% | 3.56% | 1.54% |
| 26 | Jason Kubler | 1483 | 15.08% | 4.70% | 0.77% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Hugo Dellien | 1437 | 20.16% | 3.37% | 0.45% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Karen Khachanov | 1676 | 79.84% | 32.82% | 11.45% | 3.85% | 0.66% | 0.20% |
| 29 | Sebastian Korda | 1657 | 58.42% | 16.58% | 6.78% | 2.14% | 0.34% | 0.09% |
| 30 | Richard Gasquet | 1598 | 41.58% | 9.40% | 3.15% | 0.80% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 31 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1554 | 13.88% | 5.41% | 1.54% | 0.33% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1871 | 86.12% | 68.61% | 47.38% | 27.76% | 10.14% | 5.59% |
| 33 | Casper Ruud | 1815 | 78.66% | 65.25% | 44.62% | 24.48% | 12.19% | 4.02% |
| 34 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1588 | 21.34% | 12.23% | 4.65% | 1.35% | 0.31% | 0.04% |
| 35 | Joao Sousa | 1478 | 36.91% | 6.37% | 1.59% | 0.31% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1571 | 63.09% | 16.16% | 5.79% | 1.58% | 0.34% | 0.04% |
| 37 | Frances Tiafoe | 1642 | 54.86% | 23.89% | 9.29% | 3.21% | 0.91% | 0.15% |
| 38 | David Goffin | 1608 | 45.14% | 17.68% | 6.17% | 1.91% | 0.48% | 0.07% |
| 39 | Marco Cecchinato | 1474 | 18.29% | 5.37% | 1.14% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 40 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1734 | 81.71% | 53.06% | 26.76% | 12.05% | 4.72% | 1.14% |
| 41 | Holger Rune | 1579 | 63.39% | 35.73% | 8.62% | 2.63% | 0.58% | 0.07% |
| 42 | Henri Laaksonen | 1483 | 36.61% | 15.67% | 2.58% | 0.54% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 43 | Pedro Cachin | 1505 | 42.72% | 19.00% | 3.42% | 0.78% | 0.13% | 0.01% |
| 44 | Hugo Gaston | 1556 | 57.28% | 29.60% | 6.54% | 1.83% | 0.37% | 0.04% |
| 45 | Daniel Evans | 1592 | 56.20% | 11.88% | 6.76% | 2.17% | 0.51% | 0.07% |
| 46 | Mikael Ymer | 1549 | 43.80% | 7.76% | 3.94% | 1.07% | 0.21% | 0.02% |
| 47 | Zdenek Kolar | 1503 | 10.45% | 4.19% | 1.86% | 0.42% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 48 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1876 | 89.55% | 76.18% | 66.28% | 45.45% | 26.31% | 10.68% |
| 49 | Andrey Rublev | 1811 | 85.93% | 64.60% | 39.90% | 20.36% | 10.61% | 3.45% |
| 50 | Federico Delbonis | 1497 | 14.07% | 4.67% | 1.10% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Ilya Ivashka | 1617 | 49.70% | 15.21% | 5.60% | 1.60% | 0.45% | 0.07% |
| 52 | Christian Garin | 1619 | 50.30% | 15.51% | 5.74% | 1.66% | 0.47% | 0.07% |
| 53 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1588 | 50.57% | 14.81% | 4.59% | 1.18% | 0.30% | 0.04% |
| 54 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1584 | 49.43% | 14.27% | 4.35% | 1.11% | 0.28% | 0.03% |
| 55 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1469 | 13.44% | 4.54% | 0.87% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 56 | Jannik Sinner | 1793 | 86.56% | 66.37% | 37.85% | 18.46% | 9.18% | 2.79% |
| 57 | Gilles Simon | 1477 | 38.96% | 10.69% | 1.50% | 0.27% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 58 | Steve Johnson | 1555 | 61.04% | 22.66% | 4.44% | 1.11% | 0.25% | 0.03% |
| 59 | Marton Fucsovics | 1607 | 40.54% | 24.97% | 6.03% | 1.85% | 0.51% | 0.07% |
| 60 | Marin Cilic | 1674 | 59.46% | 41.68% | 12.82% | 4.97% | 1.73% | 0.32% |
| 61 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1654 | 60.80% | 14.74% | 8.28% | 3.00% | 0.97% | 0.17% |
| 62 | Alexander Bublik | 1578 | 39.20% | 6.97% | 3.18% | 0.87% | 0.21% | 0.03% |
| 63 | Laslo Djere | 1575 | 12.85% | 5.54% | 2.51% | 0.68% | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| 64 | Daniil Medvedev | 1908 | 87.15% | 72.74% | 61.25% | 42.54% | 27.51% | 12.31% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1937 | 84.81% | 78.85% | 57.44% | 45.49% | 34.80% | 27.27% |
| 2 | Alison Riske | 1639 | 15.19% | 10.68% | 3.65% | 1.53% | 0.58% | 0.23% |
| 3 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1483 | 48.48% | 4.94% | 0.90% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Danka Kovinic | 1494 | 51.52% | 5.53% | 1.05% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 5 | Simona Halep | 1813 | 84.08% | 55.98% | 23.96% | 15.70% | 9.70% | 6.24% |
| 6 | Zheng Qinwen | 1524 | 15.92% | 4.56% | 0.73% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Alize Cornet | 1577 | 28.87% | 7.59% | 1.50% | 0.51% | 0.15% | 0.05% |
| 8 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1733 | 71.13% | 31.86% | 10.77% | 5.92% | 3.01% | 1.61% |
| 9 | Jessica Pegula | 1768 | 70.55% | 56.59% | 35.60% | 13.47% | 7.49% | 4.36% |
| 10 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1616 | 29.45% | 18.61% | 7.81% | 1.68% | 0.59% | 0.22% |
| 11 | Mayar Sherif | 1445 | 34.29% | 6.02% | 1.31% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Tamara Zidansek | 1558 | 65.71% | 18.78% | 6.46% | 1.09% | 0.30% | 0.09% |
| 13 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1693 | 62.89% | 34.01% | 17.48% | 5.11% | 2.31% | 1.11% |
| 14 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1602 | 37.11% | 15.49% | 6.11% | 1.24% | 0.41% | 0.15% |
| 15 | Leolia Jeanjean | 1511 | 24.18% | 7.28% | 2.09% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 16 | Karolina Pliskova | 1709 | 75.82% | 43.23% | 23.13% | 7.16% | 3.39% | 1.70% |
| 17 | Paula Badosa | 1784 | 77.63% | 52.35% | 35.60% | 20.72% | 9.09% | 5.49% |
| 18 | Kaja Juvan | 1568 | 22.37% | 8.71% | 3.37% | 0.99% | 0.20% | 0.06% |
| 19 | Aleksandra Krunic | 1493 | 23.65% | 4.99% | 1.47% | 0.32% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 20 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1697 | 76.35% | 33.95% | 19.21% | 8.86% | 2.94% | 1.42% |
| 21 | Madison Keys | 1666 | 63.09% | 33.83% | 14.30% | 5.99% | 1.77% | 0.78% |
| 22 | Caroline Garcia | 1573 | 36.91% | 15.23% | 4.66% | 1.40% | 0.29% | 0.09% |
| 23 | Katie Volynets | 1437 | 19.51% | 4.86% | 0.84% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 24 | Elena Rybakina | 1683 | 80.49% | 46.08% | 20.54% | 9.09% | 2.87% | 1.34% |
| 25 | Danielle Collins | 1755 | 68.57% | 40.66% | 23.05% | 13.08% | 5.26% | 2.97% |
| 26 | Shelby Rogers | 1620 | 31.43% | 12.94% | 4.97% | 1.90% | 0.47% | 0.18% |
| 27 | Fernanda Contreras | 1508 | 21.70% | 5.25% | 1.33% | 0.33% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 28 | Daria Kasatkina | 1731 | 78.30% | 41.15% | 22.01% | 11.77% | 4.39% | 2.34% |
| 29 | Camila Giorgi | 1614 | 42.97% | 15.26% | 5.52% | 2.07% | 0.50% | 0.19% |
| 30 | Yulia Putintseva | 1663 | 57.03% | 23.79% | 10.15% | 4.48% | 1.31% | 0.58% |
| 31 | Madison Brengle | 1516 | 18.85% | 6.16% | 1.52% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.02% |
| 32 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1770 | 81.15% | 54.79% | 31.46% | 18.47% | 7.77% | 4.55% |
| 33 | Magda Linette | 1611 | 65.96% | 29.97% | 12.50% | 4.18% | 1.74% | 0.44% |
| 34 | Martina Trevisan | 1496 | 34.04% | 10.30% | 2.84% | 0.59% | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| 35 | Daria Saville | 1589 | 37.78% | 19.79% | 7.69% | 2.36% | 0.91% | 0.21% |
| 36 | Petra Kvitova | 1676 | 62.22% | 39.94% | 20.18% | 8.46% | 4.27% | 1.40% |
| 37 | Angelique Kerber | 1732 | 81.59% | 54.28% | 35.37% | 17.61% | 10.25% | 4.06% |
| 38 | Elsa Jacquemot | 1473 | 18.41% | 5.75% | 1.75% | 0.33% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 39 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1639 | 59.57% | 25.85% | 13.58% | 5.03% | 2.28% | 0.65% |
| 40 | Emma Raducanu | 1572 | 40.43% | 14.12% | 6.09% | 1.75% | 0.64% | 0.14% |
| 41 | Belinda Bencic | 1763 | 56.01% | 38.05% | 20.31% | 12.96% | 8.08% | 3.52% |
| 42 | Bianca Andreescu | 1721 | 43.99% | 27.48% | 13.05% | 7.60% | 4.31% | 1.65% |
| 43 | Katerina Siniakova | 1602 | 42.59% | 13.05% | 4.14% | 1.73% | 0.70% | 0.17% |
| 44 | Leylah Fernandez | 1654 | 57.41% | 21.41% | 8.20% | 4.02% | 1.91% | 0.58% |
| 45 | Amanda Anisimova | 1746 | 70.01% | 34.60% | 19.18% | 11.82% | 7.11% | 2.95% |
| 46 | Donna Vekic | 1599 | 29.99% | 8.94% | 3.15% | 1.31% | 0.52% | 0.13% |
| 47 | Karolina Muchova | 1688 | 36.24% | 17.35% | 8.20% | 4.40% | 2.29% | 0.78% |
| 48 | Maria Sakkari | 1786 | 63.76% | 39.10% | 23.78% | 15.86% | 10.35% | 4.82% |
| 49 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1592 | 61.68% | 26.48% | 10.72% | 4.36% | 1.47% | 0.35% |
| 50 | Varvara Gracheva | 1510 | 38.32% | 12.27% | 3.69% | 1.12% | 0.27% | 0.04% |
| 51 | Marie Bouzkova | 1586 | 37.35% | 20.02% | 7.94% | 3.16% | 1.04% | 0.24% |
| 52 | Elise Mertens | 1676 | 62.65% | 41.23% | 21.41% | 11.13% | 4.98% | 1.63% |
| 53 | Coco Gauff | 1728 | 71.98% | 47.99% | 31.34% | 18.50% | 9.62% | 3.77% |
| 54 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1565 | 28.02% | 12.35% | 5.29% | 1.96% | 0.59% | 0.12% |
| 55 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1558 | 38.74% | 12.92% | 5.42% | 1.96% | 0.58% | 0.12% |
| 56 | Kaia Kanepi | 1637 | 61.26% | 26.75% | 14.18% | 6.62% | 2.61% | 0.74% |
| 57 | Victoria Azarenka | 1758 | 73.25% | 50.60% | 36.78% | 23.63% | 13.25% | 5.69% |
| 58 | Andrea Petkovic | 1583 | 26.75% | 12.24% | 6.07% | 2.45% | 0.80% | 0.18% |
| 59 | Olga Danilovic | 1506 | 29.56% | 7.22% | 2.81% | 0.86% | 0.21% | 0.03% |
| 60 | Jil Teichmann | 1657 | 70.44% | 29.93% | 17.96% | 9.09% | 3.83% | 1.17% |
| 61 | Sorana Cirstea | 1610 | 53.50% | 30.64% | 12.04% | 5.30% | 1.90% | 0.48% |
| 62 | Sloane Stephens | 1585 | 46.50% | 25.07% | 9.06% | 3.69% | 1.21% | 0.28% |
| 63 | Camila Osorio | 1599 | 68.81% | 34.51% | 13.10% | 5.59% | 1.93% | 0.47% |
| 64 | Diane Parry | 1462 | 31.19% | 9.77% | 2.18% | 0.56% | 0.11% | 0.01% |
