The 2nd round of the French Open has finished, so let's take a look at how those results impacted my ratings of the players still in, and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the Men and the Women here. Who's doing better so far, the top players, or the lower ranked players? Some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | 43 | -50 |
| 11-20 | 0 | 14 |
| 21-50 | -4 | 120 |
| 51-100 | 6 | 3 |
| 101-150 | 25 | -54 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2010 | 93.38% | 78.46% | 45.97% | 33.00% | 23.65% |
| 2 | Aljaz Bedene | 1550 | 6.62% | 1.80% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 3 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1719 | 49.23% | 9.61% | 2.37% | 0.80% | 0.27% |
| 4 | Diego Schwartzman | 1724 | 50.77% | 10.13% | 2.54% | 0.88% | 0.30% |
| 5 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1750 | 69.91% | 16.34% | 4.31% | 1.63% | 0.61% |
| 6 | Filip Krajinovic | 1603 | 30.09% | 3.81% | 0.55% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 7 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1642 | 10.78% | 4.44% | 0.76% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 8 | Rafael Nadal | 2009 | 89.22% | 75.42% | 43.28% | 31.03% | 22.20% |
| 9 | Alexander Zverev | 1895 | 85.76% | 67.31% | 41.40% | 15.86% | 9.07% |
| 10 | Brandon Nakashima | 1583 | 14.24% | 5.68% | 1.27% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 11 | John Isner | 1705 | 79.13% | 24.53% | 8.82% | 1.62% | 0.52% |
| 12 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 1473 | 20.87% | 2.48% | 0.33% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Cameron Norrie | 1786 | 64.83% | 28.73% | 12.91% | 3.32% | 1.40% |
| 14 | Karen Khachanov | 1680 | 35.17% | 10.89% | 3.49% | 0.57% | 0.17% |
| 15 | Sebastian Korda | 1666 | 23.14% | 8.90% | 2.71% | 0.42% | 0.11% |
| 16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1874 | 76.86% | 51.48% | 29.07% | 10.37% | 5.63% |
| 17 | Casper Ruud | 1819 | 80.03% | 53.18% | 27.64% | 13.39% | 4.37% |
| 18 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1578 | 19.97% | 6.76% | 1.66% | 0.34% | 0.04% |
| 19 | David Goffin | 1619 | 33.57% | 10.18% | 2.90% | 0.70% | 0.10% |
| 20 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1737 | 66.43% | 29.89% | 12.48% | 4.70% | 1.11% |
| 21 | Holger Rune | 1586 | 53.13% | 11.12% | 3.10% | 0.65% | 0.08% |
| 22 | Hugo Gaston | 1564 | 46.87% | 8.97% | 2.29% | 0.44% | 0.05% |
| 23 | Mikael Ymer | 1560 | 13.80% | 6.58% | 1.65% | 0.31% | 0.03% |
| 24 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1878 | 86.20% | 73.33% | 48.26% | 27.21% | 10.88% |
| 25 | Andrey Rublev | 1814 | 74.30% | 43.62% | 20.89% | 10.45% | 3.34% |
| 26 | Christian Garin | 1629 | 25.70% | 8.82% | 2.32% | 0.63% | 0.09% |
| 27 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1594 | 23.88% | 6.66% | 1.53% | 0.36% | 0.04% |
| 28 | Jannik Sinner | 1795 | 76.12% | 40.90% | 18.63% | 8.86% | 2.64% |
| 29 | Gilles Simon | 1489 | 24.75% | 2.91% | 0.49% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 30 | Marin Cilic | 1682 | 75.25% | 20.53% | 7.63% | 2.52% | 0.47% |
| 31 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1662 | 19.28% | 10.32% | 3.57% | 1.10% | 0.19% |
| 32 | Daniil Medvedev | 1911 | 80.72% | 66.25% | 44.94% | 28.27% | 12.51% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1940 | 92.52% | 82.66% | 65.49% | 49.86% | 38.74% |
| 2 | Danka Kovinic | 1503 | 7.48% | 3.04% | 0.81% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 3 | Zheng Qinwen | 1541 | 42.85% | 5.39% | 1.66% | 0.42% | 0.11% |
| 4 | Alize Cornet | 1591 | 57.15% | 8.90% | 3.27% | 1.00% | 0.33% |
| 5 | Jessica Pegula | 1773 | 76.84% | 57.55% | 20.86% | 11.55% | 6.65% |
| 6 | Tamara Zidansek | 1565 | 23.16% | 11.05% | 1.92% | 0.53% | 0.16% |
| 7 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1614 | 62.46% | 21.96% | 4.60% | 1.55% | 0.55% |
| 8 | Leolia Jeanjean | 1526 | 37.54% | 9.45% | 1.40% | 0.33% | 0.08% |
| 9 | Paula Badosa | 1788 | 62.22% | 40.47% | 23.76% | 9.66% | 5.75% |
| 10 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1702 | 37.78% | 20.04% | 9.35% | 2.87% | 1.36% |
| 11 | Madison Keys | 1673 | 48.01% | 18.49% | 7.90% | 2.19% | 0.95% |
| 12 | Elena Rybakina | 1687 | 51.99% | 21.00% | 9.37% | 2.73% | 1.24% |
| 13 | Shelby Rogers | 1633 | 35.67% | 13.17% | 4.86% | 1.16% | 0.44% |
| 14 | Daria Kasatkina | 1736 | 64.33% | 32.68% | 16.68% | 5.74% | 3.01% |
| 15 | Camila Giorgi | 1625 | 29.89% | 11.87% | 4.26% | 0.99% | 0.37% |
| 16 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1774 | 70.11% | 42.28% | 23.82% | 9.26% | 5.33% |
| 17 | Martina Trevisan | 1509 | 37.02% | 9.25% | 1.99% | 0.51% | 0.08% |
| 18 | Daria Saville | 1601 | 62.98% | 22.69% | 7.17% | 2.63% | 0.58% |
| 19 | Angelique Kerber | 1736 | 62.50% | 45.14% | 22.48% | 12.36% | 4.53% |
| 20 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1647 | 37.50% | 22.92% | 8.59% | 3.67% | 0.97% |
| 21 | Belinda Bencic | 1772 | 65.23% | 36.48% | 23.50% | 14.08% | 5.79% |
| 22 | Leylah Fernandez | 1663 | 34.77% | 14.06% | 7.00% | 3.14% | 0.89% |
| 23 | Amanda Anisimova | 1752 | 57.42% | 30.18% | 18.68% | 10.70% | 4.14% |
| 24 | Karolina Muchova | 1701 | 42.58% | 19.28% | 10.59% | 5.31% | 1.72% |
| 25 | Varvara Gracheva | 1522 | 28.31% | 7.54% | 2.19% | 0.55% | 0.09% |
| 26 | Elise Mertens | 1684 | 71.69% | 34.09% | 16.90% | 7.65% | 2.33% |
| 27 | Coco Gauff | 1734 | 62.53% | 39.31% | 22.17% | 11.60% | 4.22% |
| 28 | Kaia Kanepi | 1645 | 37.47% | 19.05% | 8.45% | 3.38% | 0.89% |
| 29 | Victoria Azarenka | 1763 | 64.02% | 48.81% | 29.71% | 16.75% | 6.71% |
| 30 | Jil Teichmann | 1663 | 35.98% | 23.24% | 10.92% | 4.64% | 1.31% |
| 31 | Sloane Stephens | 1596 | 66.65% | 21.49% | 8.13% | 2.73% | 0.59% |
| 32 | Diane Parry | 1476 | 33.35% | 6.47% | 1.53% | 0.31% | 0.04% |
